To take this more generally there is the global viral genome project http://www.globalviromeproject.org/
that would in principle give us a better heads up on possible emergent infections. A global comprehensive understanding of what viruses exist and their genetic sequences, at least with some sampling, would give health care workers and social systems a better ability to predict and respond to such outbreaks. LC On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 5:37:37 PM UTC-5, John Clark wrote: > > A single vaccine factory can cost half a billion dollars and 44 > vaccines are in early stage development, and even after you find one that > works and is safe you're going to need billions of doses to vaccinate > everybody. Because nobody else is doing anything Bill Gates picked 7 out of > those 44 that he thought were most promising and decided to build factories > right now for all 7 with full knowledge that he will end up wasting > billions of dollars. Gates said: > > "*Even though we’ll end up picking at most two of them, we’re going to > fund factories for all seven, just so that we don’t waste time in serially > saying, ‘OK, which vaccine works?’ and then building the factory. We can > start now by building the facilities where these vaccines will be made. > Because many of the top candidates are made using unique equipment, we’ll > have to build facilities for each of them, knowing that some won’t get > used. Private companies can’t take that kind of risk, but the federal > government can.*" > > Gates can take the risk but so can the federal government, and they can do > things on an even larger scale than he can. And we're not going to get back > to normal until a vaccine is found and we're mass producing it. The > following is from an editorial in the March 27 2020 issue of the journal > Science: > == > > > > > > > *"There is an unprecedented race to develop a vaccine against severe acute > respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). With at least 44 vaccines > in early-stage development, what outcome can we expect? Will the first > vaccine to cross the finish line be the safest and most effective? Or will > it be the most well-funded vaccines that first become available, or perhaps > those using vaccine technologies with the fewest regulatory hurdles? The > answer could be a vaccine that ticks all these boxes. If we want to > maximize the chances for success, however, and have enough doses to end the > coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, current piecemeal efforts > won't be enough. If ever there was a case for a coordinated global vaccine > development effort using a “big science” approach, it is now.There is a > strong track record for publicly funded, large-scale scientific endeavors > that bring together global expertise and resources toward a common goal. > The Manhattan Project brought about nuclear weapons quickly (although with > terrible implications for humanity) through an approach that led to > countless changes in how scientists from many countries work together. The > Human Genome Project and CERN (the European Organization for Nuclear > Research) engaged scientists from around the world to drive basic research > from their home labs through local and virtual teamwork. Taking this big, > coordinated approach to developing a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine will not only > potentially save hundreds of thousands of lives, but will also help the > world be better prepared for the next pandemic.An initiative of this scale > won't be easy. Extraordinary sharing of information and resources will be > critical, including data on the virus, the various vaccine candidates, > vaccine adjuvants, cell lines, and manufacturing advances. Allowing > different efforts to follow their own leads during the early stages will > take advantage of healthy competition that is vital to the scientific > endeavor. We must then decide which vaccine candidates warrant further > exploration purely on the basis of scientific merit. This will require > drawing on work already supported by many government agencies, independent > organizations like the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, and > pharmaceutical and biotech companies to ensure that no potentially > important candidate vaccines are missed. Only then can we start to narrow > in on those candidates to be advanced through all clinical trial phases. > This shortlist also needs to be based on which candidates can be developed, > approved, and manufactured most efficiently.* > > > *Trials need to be carried out in parallel, not sequentially, using > adaptive trial designs, optimized for speed and tested in different > populations—rich and developing countries, from children to the elderly—so > that we can ultimately protect everyone. Because the virus is spreading > quickly, testing will be needed in communities where we can get answers > fast—that means running trials anywhere in the world, not just in preset > testing locations. Working with regulators early in the process will > increase the likelihood of rapid approvals, and then once approved, a > coordinated effort will ensure that sufficient quantities are available to > all who need the vaccine, not just to the highest bidder.* > > > > > > > *All of this will require substantial funding, which is the big ask of big > science. Late-stage clinical trials are not cheap, nor is vaccine > manufacturing. Although new modular manufacturing methods may speed up the > process and cut costs, a single vaccine facility can cost half a billion > dollars. Distribution comes at a cost, too. So, to guarantee sufficient > production of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, incentives are needed to engage > manufacturers for large-scale capacity. As for dissemination, those > organizations with experience in global vaccine distribution, like Gavi, > will be at the ready.Ideally, this effort would be led by a team with a > scientific advisory mechanism of the highest quality that could operate > under the auspices of the World Health Organization (WHO), for example. But > none of this will be possible without political will and a global > commitment from leaders of the G7 and G20 countries and multilateral > organizations, like the WHO and the World Bank. A pandemic of this > magnitude, affecting so many lives, livelihoods, and economies, demands > this.In many ways, COVID-19 is more like the Manhattan Project than other > big science efforts, not just because it involves the application of > science and not just in terms of scale, but because it is a global security > issue. In the race to develop a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, everyone must win."* > > John K Clark > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/d8b9740c-f1c3-4787-9847-25e9abea9919%40googlegroups.com.
