On Sat, Jul 27, 2024 at 10:29:29AM -0700, PGC wrote: > In Silicon Valley history, there are few spectacles as tantalizing—and as > perilous—as the sight of countless billions being funneled into a single > technological frontier. AI is, next to impressing us all, also starting to > show signs that it might just be the next bubble waiting to burst. [...] > > The parallels to past tech bubbles are striking, such as dot-com crash and > the autonomous driving hype of 2017. Capital continues to be vacuumed into > the AI sector with very little to no attention being paid to company > fundamentals. > > What of the immediate financial hemorrhaging—such as OpenAI's projected $5 > billion loss this year? > > So, with all this in mind, is it still the right time to invest in a > cluster of Nvidia A100s and walk boldly into the future?
Depends. Do I have something that would require A100 in order to give me results? Other than Chad Geppetto which is amusement, and not very useful. I would not dare to have a database on my computer which invents me non-existing results. If I had to install it, I would not dare to use it. Chad Geppetto is, to me, software equivalent of certain kind of people, who always are right, even if they have to lie to prove it. Good for some entertainment. Not good for building bridges, aeroplanes and medicines. > To the computer and AI specialists reading this: Do you still see > the incredible potential in large language models (LLMs) that > justify the current hype and investment? It looked like something big, until I learned about hallucination without brakes. Until I have read about self driving car speeding up to drive over a woman crossing the road. Ok, so you can teach it to not drive over this one particular woman crossing this one particular place. What about other situations, other people? Maybe building bigger LLM is the answer or maybe not. There is no proof, so far, but there is plenty of experimenting on live subjects. > Has this technology made your lives easier, or made you 10x > more productive, I have heard some people tried this. I believe it is akin to asking an intern to writing me some initial code. After that I still need to spend time looking for errors in the code and maybe also bending it another way, because "intern" might not understood. Because Chad is not equal to the person who sits in your business day and night, ten years in a row. It might work in some generic cases - something generic enough to not require business specifics. Oh and now they want Chad to remember. My questions would be remembered. My questions may leak out. Something specific to what I wanted to do may leak out... days or years later. No thanks. There is going to be a whole insudrialt egaspione branch related to milking Chad. People who used Chad's help when planning some future company move may get sued for the leak or may have to prove they did not cause the leak, resulting in smaller revenues. > fulfilling Jensen Huang's prophecy that "People don't have > to learn programming anymore to develop software themselves"? A long living phantasy, wet dream of people who will not learn to program (and will not want to pay to those who want to learn, maybe?). Look, we all have some specialty. Do I want to be a neurosurgeon, with Chad Geppetto doing all dirty/bloody work in my name and me getting the hard earned cash? > And finally, where are all the killer apps built by hordes of agents > conferring with each other and debugging and refining their code > constructively? Good question. -- Regards, Tomasz Rola -- ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature. ** ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home ** ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened... ** ** ** ** Tomasz Rola mailto:[email protected] ** -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/Zrgoen%2BhFmYtA/ca%40tau1.ceti.pl.
