The Long Defeat By DAVID BROOKS
Published: March 25, 2008
David Brooks
Hillary Clinton may not realize it yet, but shes just endured one of the
worst weeks of her campaign.
First, Barack Obama weathered the Rev. Jeremiah Wright affair without serious
damage to his nomination prospects. Obama still holds a tiny lead among
Democrats nationally in the Gallup tracking poll, just as he did before this
whole affair blew up.
Second, Obamas lawyers successfully prevented re-votes in Florida and
Michigan. That means it would be virtually impossible for Clinton to take a
lead in either elected delegates or total primary votes.
Third, as Noam Scheiber of The New Republic has reported, most superdelegates
have accepted Nancy Pelosis judgment that the winner of the elected delegates
should get the nomination. Instead of lining up behind Clinton, theyre
drifting away. Her lead among them has shrunk by about 60 in the past month,
according to Avi Zenilman of Politico.com.
In short, Hillary Clintons presidential prospects continue to dim. The door
is closing. Night is coming. The end, however, is not near.
Last week, an important Clinton adviser told Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen
(also of Politico) that Clinton had no more than a 10 percent chance of getting
the nomination. Now, shes probably down to a 5 percent chance.
Five percent.
Lets take a look at what shes going to put her party through for the sake
of that 5 percent chance: The Democratic Party is probably going to have to
endure another three months of daily sniping. For another three months, well
have the Carvilles likening the Obamaites to Judas and former generals accusing
Clintonites of McCarthyism. For three months, well have the daily round of
résumé padding and sulfurous conference calls. Well have campaign aides
blurting blue dress and only-because-hes-black references as they let slip
their private contempt.
For three more months (maybe more!) the campaign will proceed along in its
Verdun-like pattern. There will be a steady rifle fire of character
assassination from the underlings, interrupted by the occasional firestorm of
artillery when the contest touches upon race, gender or patriotism. The policy
debates between the two have been long exhausted, so the only way to get the
public really engaged is by poking some raw national wound.
For the sake of that 5 percent, this will be the sourest spring. About a
fifth of Clinton and Obama supporters now say they wouldnt vote for the other
candidate in the general election. Meanwhile, on the other side, voters get an
unobstructed view of the Republican nominee. John McCains approval ratings
have soared 11 points. He is now viewed positively by 67 percent of Americans.
A month ago, McCain was losing to Obama among independents by double digits in
a general election matchup. Now McCain has a lead among this group.
For three more months, Clinton is likely to hurt Obama even more against
McCain, without hurting him against herself. And all this is happening so she
can preserve that 5 percent chance.
When you step back and think about it, she is amazing. She possesses the
audacity of hopelessness.
Why does she go on like this? Does Clinton privately believe that Obama is so
incompetent that only she can deliver the policies they both support? Is she
simply selfish, and willing to put her party through agony for the sake of her
slender chance? Are leading Democrats so narcissistic that they would create
bitter stagnation even if they were granted one-party rule?
The better answer is that Clintons long rear-guard action is the logical
extension of her relentlessly political life.
For nearly 20 years, she has been encased in the apparatus of political
celebrity. Look at her schedule as first lady and ever since. Think of the
thousands of staged events, the tens of thousands of times she has pretended to
be delighted to see someone she doesnt know, the hundreds of thousands times
she has recited empty clichés and exhortatory banalities, the millions of
photos she has posed for in which she is supposed to appear empathetic or
tough, the billions of politically opportune half-truths that have bounced
around her head.
No wonder the Clinton campaign feels impersonal. Its like a machine for the
production of politics. It plows ahead from event to event following its own
iron logic. The only question is whether Clinton herself can step outside the
apparatus long enough to turn it off and withdraw voluntarily or whether she
will force the rest of her party to intervene and jam the gears.
If she does the former, she would surprise everybody with a display of
self-sacrifice. Her campaign would cruise along at a lower register until North
Carolina, then use that as an occasion to withdraw. If she does not, she would
soldier on doggedly, taking down as many allies as necessary.
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