Released: May 02, 2008Zogby Poll: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Clinton in NC; Pair
tied in Indiana
UTICA, New York—Five days before the
important Democratic presidential primaries in North Carolina and
Indiana, Barack Obama of Illinois enjoys a substantial lead in one
state and remains tied with Hillary Clinton of New York in the other, a
new Zogby daily tracking poll shows.
Obama leads by a 50% to 34% margin over Clinton in
North Carolina, while the two are tied at 42% support each in Indiana.
The
telephone surveys, conducted over two days, began on April 30 and were
completed May 1. They comprise the first of Zogby's daily tracking
surveys that will continue until Tuesday. In North Carolina, 668 likely
Democratic primary election voters were polled. The survey carries a
margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. In Indiana, 680 likely
voting Democratic primary voters were surveyed. That poll carries a
margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
The telephone surveys were conducted using live
operators working out of Zogby's call center in Upstate New York.
In North Carolina, Obama dominates all age groups with
one exception—those age 70 and older, where the two are essentially tied.
Democrats—North
Carolina
4-30/5-1
Clinton
34%
Obama
50%
Someone else
8%
Not sure
8%
Clinton
leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina—47% to 37% -
but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for
Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women
voters as well—winning 44% support to Clinton's 37% backing.
Asked
if the statements of controversial Obama pastor Jeremiah Wright made
voters more or less likely to support Obama, 15% of North Carolina
voters said they were less likely to support him, while 4% said the
comments made them more likely to support Obama.
In Indiana, the two Democrats were deadlocked at 42%
each, with 16% either favoring someone else or yet undecided.
Democrats—Indiana
4-30/5-1
Clinton
42%
Obama
42%
Someone else
7%
Not sure
9%
The
demographic breakdowns in Indiana mirror what we have seen in earlier
voting states, with Obama leading among younger voters and Clinton
leading among older voters. A key middle-age demographic—those age 35
to 54—now favors Obama by a 48% to 41% margin in Indiana, but this demo
turned out to be a key battleground in Pennsylvania, which has a
somewhat similar population make-up.
Obama
leads in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by
Obama's hometown Chicago media market. In the southern half of the
state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door,
Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead. Obama enjoys an 11-point lead among
Indiana men, while Clinton leads by seven points among women.
After
getting clobbered among Catholics in Pennsylvania nearly two weeks ago,
Obama wins 41% support from Indiana Catholics, compared to 40% who
support Clinton. Conversely, Clinton leads among Protestants by six
points after having lost among them in Pennsylvania.
Nearly
three in four in Indiana—72%—said they held a positive overall view of
Obama, compared to 68% who held a positive opinion of Clinton.
The
statements of Rev. Wright have had more of an impact in Indiana than in
North Carolina. In the Hoosier state, 21% of likely Democratic primary
voters said they were less likely to vote for Obama as a result of his
former pastor's statements.
There
is clearly some disaffection within the Democratic electorate. Asked
who they would support in a general election match-up between Clinton
and McCain, 20% of Indiana Democratic voters said they would support
McCain, while 21% said they would vote for McCain if he were running
against Obama in the general election this fall. Asked about the same
head-to-head general election match-ups, North Carolina voters were
slightly less willing to cross party lines to support the Republican
nominee—16% said they would vote for McCain in both the McCain-Clinton
match-up and the McCain-Obama match-up.
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