--- In [email protected], "markmeredith2002" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > --- In [email protected], "John" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Bhairitu, > > > > A number of astrologers predicted bad times starting around the first of September. I remember one set posted here a couple months back (plus I remember hearing one for 2005 from a noted astrologer 10 years ago). > > > Astrology cannot precisely predict what is going to happen but the propensity given the planetary configurations for what might happen. Far better than guessing. Reality is all just the overtone series from the big bang
> > There were probably 1 or 2 astrologers predicting bad times in Sept > and also a few astrologers predicting good times. The 1 or 2 > predicting bad times probably have predicted bad times on numerous > occasions and were wrong. Astrologers have a way of conveniently > forgettting all the times they were wrong and advertising the few > times they're generally right. Thats why they should create a model of their prediction, then show using historic data why the model has some merit, make some future predictions based on the model, and then "publish" such. For example: quantitatively define "Bad times". Is it a decrease in GNP. Is it an increase in unemployment, crime, deaths, injuries? This would be the dependnet variable in a simple regression model. Lets say the hypothesis, per jyothish theory, is that Sept through Dec should see significantly higher unemployment. Then define the independent variables that one speculates drive variations over time of unemployment, both jyothish and economic/social. The jyotish variables might include: Saturn transiting the 10th house (employment/ career), Jupiter being aspected by a malefic planet, etc. The economic variabels might include GNP, interest rates, foreign trade balances, weather variables, seasonal variables (for example, is it summer with lots more students working), corporate cashflow (funds available for re-investment) and tax rates. The model would have the form: UnEmploy = S10 + JUmal + GNP + i + FT + Wea + Sea + CF + T + b -- b being the "error term" the unexplained factors which influence the dependnet variable. Testing this model specification would then require a regression analysis (a common statistical method) over perhaps 20 years of monthly data to show which variables are significant in explaining the variation over time of unemployment. And which are not. Those that contribute nothing would be dropped from the model. Through iterative testing, after dropping insignificant variables a final model will result. If the jyotish variables contribute to explaining the historic ups and downs of employment, then their predictive power will be demonstrated. If they contribute nothing to the explanatory power of the model, it would mean that, for this case, for this model, the jyotish variables provide no explanatory or predictive power. It would not prove jyotish was not effective, just that in this model specification, the chosen jyotish variables did not prove of any value. And if the jyotish variables do reamin in the model, the "coeficients" of each varible that the regression analysis provides, will indicate the relative effect of the jyotish variables, relative to any or all of the economic ones. For example, it might show that while the jyotish variables do help explain the ups and downs of employment, the influence is only about 10% relative to the other economic variables. It would be highly unlikely that any model would find the jyotish model explain it all, that they by themselves, are both significant, and make the use of economic variables redundant. This implies that trying to predict economic or social events solely with the use of jyotish models will probably be ineffective, or quite vague at best. And such a regression based model will show the periods when a jyotish variable has an effect and, AS importantly, when it doesn't. For example, some jyotish predictions are of the form, such as in my adjacent post, "there will be peace between Country A and B over the next 12 months" because jupiter will transit the 7th house of relations. Gee, that sounds pretty specific and testable. But its bogus if there has been peace between country A and B for the past 50 years. An explanatpory variable -- such as jupiter transiting the 7th house, is useful ONLY if something specific occurs during that period, and does NOT occur when when Juptier is not transiting the 7th house. If the conditions is always occuring, or always not occuring, then it is not prediction. Yet its amazing how may jyotish predictions take this form. Until this sort of analysis is done, repeatedly, over many different types of model specifications and dependent variables (crime, income, health, mortality rates etc.) over many regions and countries (or individuals) then jyotish will remain a hodgepodge of weak claims. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
