Well, you certainly have an intresting POV. I hope it serves you well and profitably.
--- In [email protected], off_world_beings <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > I suggest you are not getting it, or simply poorly informed about > the > > housing markets in the US. First, how will foreign invesors, as a > > class, be richer if a global bubble occurs -- which is what what > I am suggesting. >> > > > The most ridiculous suggestion. There might be little green men on > mars too. Gobal bubble burst. HOW? > > >>> Even without such, most foreign investors are just that: > investors -- looking for a return. In most major markets, the > fundamentals are so out of whack, the rent/mortgage rates (30-50%), > and the affordability rates (15% or so) that the probability of a > positive return from either rentals or selling appreciated property > is fast becoming minimal. Losses, large losses, are gaining a much > higher probability. >>> > > > So you are saying less people will be able to buy a house so more > people will be renting so rental acoomodation will become more > scarce so rent prices will rise so people with mortgages can rent > their place out and pay the mortgage. In addition renters will get > fed up with rising rent which the market will bear unless there is > mass unemployment on a scale not seen since the great depression. So > renters will (as always) get fed up renting and will start buying so > house prices will continuw to rise so there is no real bubble > burst....just a normal market wiggle. > > > <<<If the foreign investors want to wait it out, 10 - 20 years while > the > > markets readjust, then fine, >>. > > 10 years+, as ALL intelligent investors look at it. Yes you have hit > the nail on the head. There are million of intelligent investors in > the world who look at gains over 10 to 15 years....not year by year. > They year by year types are the ones that CAUSED the tech bubble in > the late '90s. > > housing may be a good long-term > > investment for such. But the current housing investor market is > > generally much shorter term.>>> > > Then tough luck to them. Most people are not in it to make a > killing. Most people are in it to live in their own place and if > they make monety great, but if not they at least don't throw 10 to > 20,000 a year down the drain in rent money. (100,000 to 200,000 lost > in only 10 years). It is these people that are fueling the market. > > > > > > > >> If your theorized crash occurs then that makes the US > poorer > > > than some other countries who will be perfectly happy to buy > > property at the meagre prices they are seeing, wether there is a > > prevailing lower market rate or not. > > > > > > With prices dropping globally. They are -- from London to > > > Austrailia to Spain to China.>> > > > > > > > > > Jya...right. House prices have been dropping in China for a long > > > time.....jya ....right. > > > > Actually thats a direct quote from the PBS Lehr News hour tonight. > > There has been substantial state-financed overbuilding of upscale > > condos in Peiking, Shanghai and other areas, and prices -- the > report > > said, have dropped 30% in the last couple of years.>>>> > > > > > > > > > > > In fact, this very effect will be enough to keep house > prices > > > > rising. We live in a global economy. The nouveau rich in > Russia or > > > > Canada will come and buy your cheap little $300,000 dollar > house > > in Boston. > > > > I am still waiting for you to buy the portfolio of overpriced > > properties that I can structure for you. If you are not willing to > > buy, your points are just empty and uninformed idle banter>>> > > > Yes Mr. Rich man. Sorry ain't got that kinda money to buy a bunch of > houses, and I'm glad I don't. Most intelligent people don't want > that much wealth, they just a house of their own and a car and a > decent job they like with prospects and a decent pension. This is > what most people actually want. Being rich is boring. > > > > Yes, wages have to go up 4 fold in order for 50% of the population > to > > be able to afford the median priced home in major markets. That > will > > take a while. Or prices will have to drop 30-40% > >>> > > > True to some extent but mostly in California dude, but not > elsewhere. > > If a house is 250,000 then the monthly mortgage payment will be > around $2,300 including property taxes. Most working couples (on say > 35,000 and 40,000 a year = 70,000 total) can just about afford that. > And that is what mortgage companies look at. It is $24,000 a year, > as opposed to about 15,000 a year they would have to pay in rent for > something decent. With a bit of inginuity most working people can do > it...though it has never been easy. Once they get older and are on > 45,000 plus 55,000, then it is getting easier and easier, plus the > equity goes up over 10 years. > > If analysts such as the ones you are quoting are going by average > saleries of a single person then they are not very good analysts. > Working couples buy houses probably the most....and they fuel house > price growth over time. > > MAIN POINT: Most ordinary people understand the above 10 -15 year > inverstment period, and they are fueling the house buying econmoy in > the 150,000 to 450,000 range. Their logic will continue to fuel it . > (barring the black hole of Iraq and other disasters) > > Without the over-analysis that this guy does on this website....this > first chart speaks for itslef: > http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2005/20050701.html > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! 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