--- In [email protected], akasha_108 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Here are annual % change figures for DC violent crimes (and per > 100,000 pop figures). Its interesting to see the big swings. This > underscores the fact that there are probably a number of factors > driving crime levels. If these are not controlled in the analysis, > short term swings, annual, but most certainly 8 week periods, can be > due to factors totally unrelated to the "intervention". > > Also, note that in 1992, the year preceeding the study, there was over > a 15% increase in crime. The year before was almost 0. So there seems > to be some snapback effect, high levels may cause more police > crackdowns, higher funding levels etc the following year. > > The Me study "indicated" a 25% drop in crime over 8 weeks. This by > itself should amount to about a 4% decrease in the annual rate. But it > went up 3%. But the next year with no ME effect, crime decreased over > 8%. Though having weekly figures would be best, even with annual > numbers a 4% impact should be discernble. >
Geeze, Akasha, you just supported the ME while trying to discredit it. If the ME hadn't been in effect to cause a 4% decrease (according to you) in annual crime concentrated during the Summer months, the annual rate icnrease would have been 7%, which is comparable to the next year's 8 percent. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
