--- In [email protected], akasha_108 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> 
wrote:
>
> Here are annual % change figures for DC violent crimes (and per
> 100,000 pop figures). Its interesting to see the big swings. This
> underscores the fact that there are probably a number of factors
> driving crime levels. If these are not controlled in the analysis,
> short term swings, annual, but most certainly 8 week periods, can be
> due to factors totally unrelated to the "intervention". 
> 
> Also, note that in 1992, the year preceeding the study, there was 
over
> a 15% increase in crime. The year before was almost 0. So there 
seems
> to be some snapback effect, high levels may cause more police
> crackdowns, higher funding levels etc the following year.
> 
> The Me study "indicated" a 25% drop in crime over 8 weeks. This by
> itself should amount to about a 4% decrease in the annual rate. But 
it
> went up 3%. But the next year with no ME effect, crime decreased 
over
> 8%. Though having weekly figures would be best, even with annual
> numbers a 4% impact should be discernble.
> 

Geeze, Akasha, you just supported the ME while trying to discredit it.

If the ME hadn't been in effect to cause a 4% decrease (according to 
you) in annual crime concentrated during the Summer months, the 
annual rate icnrease would have been 7%, which is comparable to the 
next year's 8 percent. 





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