There is a lot more randomness in the universe than we realize. Its common to 
be "fooled by randomness" as our minds seek to see patterns and connections 
that do not in reality exist. 
 

 
https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto-ebook/dp/B001FA0W5W
 
https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto-ebook/dp/B001FA0W5W

 

 Here are some pretty funny spurious correlations -- graphs of two phenomena 
that are highly correlated but laughably not rationally, causally connected. 
 

 https://hbr.org/2015/06/beware-spurious-correlations 
https://hbr.org/2015/06/beware-spurious-correlations

 http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations 
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

 "We all know the truism “Correlation doesn’t imply causation,” but when we see 
lines sloping together, bars rising together, or points on a scatterplot 
clustering, the data practically begs us to assign a reason. We want to believe 
one exists. Statistically we can’t make that leap, however. Charts that show a 
close correlation are often relying on a visual parlor trick to imply a 
relationship. Tyler Vigen, a JD student at Harvard Law School and the author of 
Spurious Correlations, http://www.tylervigen.com/ has made sport of this on his 
website, which charts farcical correlations—for example, between U.S. per 
capita margarine consumption and the divorce rate in Maine. 
http://www.tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=1703";

 

 

 It can be quite a challenge to establish causality, even for "obvious" 
correlated phenomenon such as global warming whereby heatwaves seems to be a 
natural and logical result of global climate change. However,  the causal link 
between global warming and specific extreme weather events has only recently 
been established, despite extensive climate studies and modeling by top 
scientists over the past decades.   
 

 

 

 
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/27/heatwave-made-more-than-twice-as-likely-by-climate-change-scientists-find
 
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/27/heatwave-made-more-than-twice-as-likely-by-climate-change-scientists-find

 "Fingerprints of global warming clear, they say, after comparing northern 
Europe’s scorching summer with records and computer models"

 

 
https://www.skepticalscience.com/heatwaves-past-global-warming-climate-change.htm
 
https://www.skepticalscience.com/heatwaves-past-global-warming-climate-change.htm

 "the growing risk from heatwaves is ignored by some who argue that heatwaves 
have happened in the past, hence current heatwaves must be natural. This line 
of argument is logically flawed, using a logical fallacy called a non sequitor 
(Latin for 'it does not follow'). This is a fallacy where your starting 
statement does not lead to your conclusion. For example, this is like arguing 
that people have died of cancer long before cigarettes were invented, hence 
smoking can't cause cancer."
 

 

 

Reply via email to