Great analysis
Sent from my iPhone
> On Apr 22, 2020, at 10:08 AM, Theresa Olson theresaolson...@gmail.com
> [FairfieldLife] <FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
>
> Thank you, Dick, for this intelligent, useful and practical information.
>
>
> For the TM readers, please recall the cogent advice of Maharishi: Avert the
> danger BEFORE it arises.
> And if prevention did not work, he would tell us, GO SEE A DOCTOR.
>
> Also recall that cover-19 damages your lungs. Is it worth it? Are you sure
> your lungs are in perfect shape right now?
>
> Prana flows, but let’s support a healthy flow.
>
> Again, thank you Dick
>
> Theresa Olson, Phd, Ms, Ma Msci
>
>
>
>> On Apr 22, 2020, at 2:52 PM, Dick Mays dickm...@lisco.com [FairfieldLife]
>> <FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>> Dear Friends,
>>
>> Several of you have expressed support for the belief that COVID-19 is no
>> more deadly than the flu, and/or expressed support for anti-lockdown
>> protests. To these among you I ask a simple question, and then present some
>> stats.
>>
>> The question: How many times in the last 100 years have you heard of New
>> York City’s hospitals being completely overwhelmed by a flu? Detroit’s?
>> Milan’s?
>> Once—only this year. In other words, it’s an extremely rare occurrence.
>> If so, the probability that Covid-19 is just like any other flu would be
>> close to 1%.
>>
>> The stats:
>>
>> 1. How lethal is Covid-19 compared to flu? Here are CNN's stats on the
>> annual flu burden in the U.S. since 2010 from a cogent 3-minute interview of
>> Dr. Sanjay Gupta:*
>> Range of the number of illnesses in a year: 9,000,000-45,000,000
>> Range of the number of hospitalizations in a year: 140,000-810,000
>> Range of the number of deaths in a year: 12,000-61,000
>>
>> Conclusion: The lethality of the flu in the U.S. during this period has
>> been 0.13%.
>>
>> 2. The Lancet estimated Covid-19’s lethality is 5.7%, and could be as high
>> as 20%.** This is 48-154 times as deadly as flu.
>>
>> 3. How easily does Covid-19 spread compared to flu? Here are CNN's stats
>> from a cogent 2-minute report*** on R0 ("R-naught”, the reproduction
>> number), a measure of how many people each patient will infect:
>> For Measles at the upper end, R0 = 12-18, so each person with measles will
>> infect 12-18 others.
>> For Ebola at the lower end, R0 = 1.5-2.5.
>> Flu varies year to year, but one study reports its R0 averages 1.2.
>> For Covid-19 the CDC reports the R0 = 2.2-2.7.****
>>
>> Conclusion: Covid-19 is twice as contagious as the flu.
>>
>> 4. Combining the fact that Covid-19 is 48-158 times as lethal as the flu
>> with the fact that Covid-19 is twice as contagious as the flu, Covid-19 is
>> 96-316 times as deadly. That’s not "just like the flu!"
>>
>> 5. These facts justify a response to Covid-19 that has correspondingly
>> greater urgency than the flu. That response is especially urgent in the
>> U.S.. because:
>> The world’s population is 7,800,000,000 and the U.S. population is
>> 327,000,000.
>> According to Johns Hopkins,***** the world has 2,561,044 confirmed cases, or
>> 328 cases per million.
>> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has 823,786 confirmed cases, or 2,519
>> cases per million. That is 8 times worse than average for the world.
>> According to Johns Hopkins, the world has 176,921 deaths, or 23 deaths per
>> million.
>> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has 44,845 deaths, or 137 deaths per
>> million. That is 6 times worse than average for the world.
>>
>> 6. I’m not a doctor or epidemiologist, and the following statement is less
>> rigorous and more simplistic than the above sets of facts, and I could be
>> wrong: I’d say the primary ways of dealing with a new virus—until
>> vaccinations are available—are Containment, Tests, Contract Tracing, and
>> Social Distancing.
>> In the U.S., the opportunity for Containment lapsed in February.
>> In the U.S., the Tests are way behind the nation's need.
>> Harvard researchers estimate “We need to deliver 5 million tests per day by
>> early June to deliver a safe social reopening."******
>> Harvard researchers estimate the U.S. needs "20 million tests a day (ideally
>> by late July) to fully remobilize the economy."
>> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has tested a total of only 4,155,178
>> since testing began.
>> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. tested only 151,627 in the past 24
>> hours.
>> Contact Tracing can’t begin to be effective until the tests are sufficient.
>> Until the U.S. ramps up its Tests and Contract Tracing, Social Distancing is
>> all that’s left.
>>
>> These are reasons for my reluctance to watch videos that encourage Americans
>> to dismiss social distancing and protest anti-lockdown measures. Until
>> Covid-19 is contained by much more tests and contract tracing—especially as
>> set forth by Harvard below—such advice will not only multiply our death
>> count, but prolong and deepen our economic contraction.
>>
>> Sincere best wishes,
>> Dick
>>
>>
>> * Link:
>> https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/02/27/trump-coronavirus-flu-news-conference-sanjay-gupta-newday-vpx.cnn
>> ** Global mortality rates over time using a 14-day delay estimate are shown
>> in the figure, with a curve that levels off to a rate of 5·7% (5·5–5·9),
>> converging with the current WHO estimates. Estimates will increase if a
>> longer delay between onset of illness and death is considered. A recent
>> time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19
>> could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak. These
>> findings show that the current figures might underestimate the potential
>> threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients. Link:
>> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
>> *** Link:
>> https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/03/how-viruses-spread-lon-md-orig.cnn
>> **** Link: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
>> ***** Link:
>> https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
>> ****** Link:
>> https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-for-ethics/files/roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20.pdf
>>
>> Very Important Note: Harvard’s "Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience” is
>> amazingly credible and strong. It concludes:
>>
>> We have no time to waste. We can save lives, save our health infrastructure,
>> mobilize our economy, protect our civil liberties, and secure the
>> foundations for a resilient constitutional democracy. We can be democracy’s
>> bulwark against this existential threat if we elevate our ambitions and
>> determine to act swiftly and with purpose.
>>
>> OUR ANCHOR RECOMMENDATION IS THIS:
>>
>> Between now and August, we should phase in economic mobilization in sync
>> with growth in our capacity to provide speedy, sustainable testing, tracing
>> and warning, and supported isolation and quarantine programs for mobilized
>> sectors of the workforce.. We do not propose a modest level of testing,
>> tracing, and supported isolation intended to supplement collective
>> quarantine as a tool of disease control. We recommend a level of TTSI
>> ambitious enough to replace collective quarantine as a tool of disease
>> control.
>>
>> We need to deliver 5 million tests per day by early June to deliver a safe
>> social reopening. This number will need to increase over time (ideally by
>> late July) to 20 million a day to fully remobilize the economy. Achieving
>> these numbers depends on testing innovation. We acknowledge that even this
>> number may not be high enough to protect public health. In that considerably
>> less likely eventuality, we will need to scale testing up much further. By
>> the time we know if we need to do that, we should be in a better position to
>> know how to do it.
>>
>> [From its Introduction: “(T)he cost of such a testing and tracing, or TTSI,
>> program—$50 to 300 billion over two years—is dwarfed by the economic cost of
>> continued collective quarantine of $100 to 350 billion a month. Furthermore,
>> this calculus neglects the lives being lost every week among workers in
>> essential sectors and the vulnerable populations they serve who remain
>> exposed to the virus even when stay-at-home advisories are in place. It also
>> neglects the fraying of the social fabric created by extended collective
>> quarantine.”]
>>
>> An effective strategy of pandemic resilience requires the following:
>>
>> • Innovation in testing methodologies.
>>
>> • A Pandemic Testing Board established by the federal government with
>> strong but narrow powers that has the job
>> of securing the testing supply and the infrastructure necessary for
>> deployment..
>>
>> • Federal and/or state guidance for state testing programs that accord with
>> due process, civil liberties, equal protection, non-discrimination, and
>> privacy standards.
>>
>> • Readiness frameworks to support local health leaders, mayors, tribal
>> leaders, and other public officials in establishing test administration
>> processes and isolation support resources.
>>
>> • Organizational innovation at the local level linking cities, counties,
>> and health districts, with specifics varying from state to state.
>>
>> • Federal and state investment in contact tracing personnel, starting with
>> an investment in 100,000 personnel (recommendation from JHU Center for
>> Health Security).
>>
>> • Clear mechanisms and norms of governance and enforcement around the
>> design and use of peer-to-peer warning apps, including maximal privacy
>> protection, availability of open source code for independent and regulatory
>> audit, and prohibitions on the use of any data from these apps for
>> commercial purposes, ideally achieved through pre-emptive legislation.
>>
>> • Support for quarantine and isolation in the form of jobs protections and
>> material support for time in quarantine and isolation as well as access to
>> health care.
>>
>> • An expanded U.S. Public Health Service Corps and Medical (or Health)
>> Reserves Corps (paid service roles), and addition of Health Reserves Corps
>> to the National Guard units of each state..
>>
>> • National Infectious Disease Forecasting Center to modernize disease
>> tracking (recommendation from Scott Gottlieb, AEI).
>>
>> Consensus is emerging about what we need. How to do it is beginning to come
>> into view. The time for action has arrived.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
