--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, "authfriend" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, doctor_gabby_savy 
> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, cardemaister <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> 
> wrote:
> > > Perhaps I don't get it at all, but IMO VE is "always" about 365 
> > > revolutions of the Earth around its axis away from the previous
> > > VE. Precession only affects on how the starry background of the 
> Sun 
> > > looks like at VE, or any other time of the year?  :0
> > 
> > "Your observation" are the key words. We are talking something that
> > changes very slowly. About 20 minutes a year on average. Its hard to
> > see  the trend even over 50 years because other adjustments like
> > leap year make it very bumpy. But even the show Sienfeld 
> > noticed "Hey has anyone noticed spring rarely starts on the 21st 
> > anymore. What gives?"
> > 
> > VE has been shifting slowly backwards, and in our lives, its gone
> > from predominatnly on the 21st, to the 20th. Look at future 
> > calendars, and the 19th becomes predominant.
> 
> And then the 20th becomes predominant again, and then
> the 21st, and then back to the 20th, and then the 19th,
> and then the 20th, and then the 21st...and so on.
> 
> Never any earlier than the 19th, at least through the
> year 4200.  It just keeps going back and forth, back
> and forth, among those three days.
> 
> You'd think, if it were ever going to occur any earlier
> than the 19th, it would have done so by 4200, by a day
> or two at least.
> 
> But in 4200, it's the 20th; 3900 through 4000, mostly the
> 21st; 3800 through 3900, pretty evenly divided between the
> 20th and the 21st; 3700 through 3800, mostly the 20th with
> some 19ths creeping in; 3600 through 3700, the same; 3500
> through 3600, just 20th and 21st; 3400 through 3500, the
> same, but the 20th has a bit of an edge; 3300 through 3400,
> mostly 20ths, with a few 21sts at the beginning and a few
> 19ths at the end; 3200 through 3300, lots of 19ths creeping
> in among the 20ths; 3200 through 3300, nothing but 20ths
> and 21sts.
> 
> In fact, although every couple of hundred years a batch
> of 19ths sneaks in, from 2000 through 4200 the 20ths and
> 21sts have the upper hand overall.  Just when you think
> you're beginning to spot a trend for the 19th and are
> waiting breathlessly for an 18th to pop up--yow!  Back it
> goes to the 20th and 21st again.
> 
> http://www.hermetic.ch/cal_sw/ve/ve.php

I think at least part of that is the whole gregorian jullian leap year
transition thing. It muffled the phenomenon. 

And other things are going on that may counter the effect. The 20
minutes/year retreat thing is from precesson, other things may be
pushing it back forward.








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