--- In [email protected], "markmeredith2002" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > --- In [email protected], anony_sleuth_ff <no_reply@> > wrote: > > Thanks for the link. I'll have to find the daily options data again. > I didn't look at American, but at United. I looked only at 2001 up to > that point and the volume for the week looked unusually high given no > specific public news and it not being an expiration week. I didn't > look at the calls as this guy did, which is interesting.
"this guy" was me. I put that blog together yesterday to look at this issue. I am surprise UAL was not accessable by my provider. Usually expired symbols still have data. I would have liked to have seen that pattern. > I think to > really figure this out, you need to do the volume statistics, but also > see if there is some obvious fundamental reason or not for each of > daily volume peaks. See the Snopes link. It traces down the large trades. http://www.snopes.com/rumors/putcall.asp >Also see if the volume surge is industry wide or > company specific and why. For now I'm back to neutral on this topic! > PS - it's really stupid to try to profit from inside knowledge about > 9/11 by trading specific company options where you would really stand > out - you should just short s&p futures where you get leverage but can > hide in the large volume crowd. Yes. > > --- In [email protected], "markmeredith2002" > > <markmeredith@> wrote: > > > > > > The trading anomolies were in the options trading of the 2 airlines > > > involved in 9/11 hijackings. The data is easily available - I do > > > options trading for a living. I compared the options trading in the > > > relevant airlines the prior week to 9/11 to the prior year and it was > > > clearly statistically significant, no doubt about it, and it was all > > > predicting a downward movement, ie, purchase of put options. > > > > > > > > Mark, I pulled together the data over a two year range prior to 9/11 > > and I don't see anything that looks out of normal regularly occuring > > trading ranges. I have yet to see how many standard deviations the > > events are from the long-run mean, but you can see from the graphs, > > its not going to be that high. > > > > Where are you finding "clearly statistically significant, no doubt > > about it" anomolies? > > > > http://911-stock-anomolies.blogspot.com/ > > > > > > AMR Stock price dropped about 5% in 10 trading days prior to 9/11, but > > as one can see there six or more such drops of this size or greater > > in a 1-2week period, over the prior two years. > > > > Stock volume hit 1.3 million shares in the 10 trading days prior to > > 9/11, but this is just a bit above the 90 day moving average. There > > are 6 other days in the prior two years where over 4 million shares > > were traded. > > > > Put volume reached 2300 one day in the 10 trading days prior to 9/11-- > > but this was reached on 11 days over the prior two years, on average > > once every two months or so. It was hardly a rare event. On six days > > in that two year range, over 5000 contracts were traded, double the > > highest day in the 10 trading days prior to 9/11, once every 4 months. > > Even twice the just-prior-to 9/11 level was hardly a rare event. > > > > Interestingly Call volume reached 2500 in the 10 trading days prior to > > 9/11, higher than the peak level of puts during this period. > > > > The regular frequency of the peak Put volume in the 10 trading days > > prior to 9/11 over the prior two-year, and more greater number of > > Calls in that 10-day period, dampens the speculation that Put volume > > was abnormal high, out of any sense of ordinary trading range. > > > > > > Boeing: Stock price dropped about 5% in the 10 trading days to 9/11, > > but as one can see there four or more days that such drops of this > > size or greater in a 1-2week period, over the prior two years. > > > > Stock volume hit 8 million shares in the 10 trading days prior to > > 9/11, but there are 13 other days in the prior two years where this > > occurred -- on average once every couple ofmonths. Once almost double > > that volume was achieved. Frequently, volume hit the 6 million share > > range. > > > > Put volume reached 15,000 and 20,000 contracts in the 10 trading days > > prior to 9/11-- but this was reached 12 and 6 times respectively over > > the prior two years. > > > > Interestingly Call volume reached 15,000 and 25,000 contracts in the > > 10 trading days prior to 9/11. 25,000 had been reached only 2 times > > previously in the past two years. Thus, it appears Call trades were > > more out of the ordinary than puts. > > > > The regular frequency of the peak Put volume in the 10 trading days > > prior to 9/11 over the prior 2-year period, and the higher level -- > > and more rare level of Calls in that week -- dampens the speculation > > that Put volume was abnormal high, out of any sense of ordinary > > trading range. > > > > United Airlines data is not accessable. Old symbol UAL was retired > > when the firm came out of bankrupcy and new stock was issued as UAUA. > > > To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
