A quick update -- since july 24th, the beginning of the course: the four major stock indexes are up from 2-3% -- though declined from the 5-%6% or so increase (from the 24th) experienced Aug 4. And the market declined sharply, 5-6% in the several market days just prior to July 24. So Activity since the 24th is in a normal trading range.
Gold is up 8% and oil is up 2%, The dollar is down about 1% So these latter three factors have taken an opposite direction from what hagelin "predicted" or sited as stron ME effects after the first few days of the course. However, in looking at long term market trends, it is interesting that the average annual change in the market 1960-1980 or so, dramatically shifted upwards after the Big ME courses started. As I noted on the blog, and posts, the immediate effect of big courses -- IF there is any beyond spurious correlation -- appears to be a negative effect on the markets for some months, then a strong growth period. It has occurred to me that trying to isolate the effects of each ME course is both difficult and flawed. There could be a long run cumulative effect that rolls on from big ME course to another (utopia, heaven and DC) -- and amplifed by FF dome numbers, etc. Thus IF there is an ME effect on financial markets, the data leads me to hypothesize that it is on a much longer scale (and thus far more substantial) than ME researchers are typically looking at. The long financial data is consistent with this view, though it hardly proves causation. Same them with some preliminary and rough longer term modeling (multivariate regression) I did on the DC course effects on crime. While I reamin skeptical of the reported short term crime decrease, there was unexplained long term decrease correlated from the beginning of the course. By itself, this quite spurious. But if linked to a number of other views /analysis (such as long term impacts on finacial markets) there might be something there -- a least to ponder. (A 1% chance, by hey, 1% is powerful!). To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
