There would be block parties all over the US. Robert Gimbel wrote:
>What if Bush really was assassinated?by MARK ALMOND Last updated at 13:30pm on >1st September 2006 ) > Bush is shot by a sniper in a scene from Death of a President. > HeadlinesHeld up by a Secret Service bodyguard in his dying moments after > being shot in the stomach, this is President Bush being assassinated. > > > The American leader is surrounded by a crowd of panicking onlookers just > seconds after being gunned down by a Syrian-born U.S. citizen outside a > Chicago hotel. But this shocking image, created by putting the President's > face onto an actor with digital wizardry, is part of a new British drama for > Channel Four about the War on Terror. In Death Of A President, which has > caused outrage in America and will premiere at the Toronto Film Festival this > month, the shooting is a starting point for a fictional documentary about > what happened next. So what would happen if President Bush was assassinated? > Here, a historian looks to the future — and imagines the terrifying > consequences. BEFORE that fateful day — November 9, 2006 — historians liked > to say the world could never again lurch into global crisis because of one > man's death, as it had in 1914 when Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand was > murdered in Sarajevo, sparking World War I. The assassination of John > Kennedy at the > height of the Cold War hadn't led to Armageddon in 1963, so why should things > spiral out of control now if a president was murdered? That confident view > was shattered as global communications networks froze from overload while > transmitting round the world the picture of the 43rd President of the United > States slumping forward after being fatally shot in the stomach. The murder > of George W. Bush set off a global crisis with which we still live today, ten > years after he was killed. Of course, in retrospect, we historians could > see it all coming. In the summer of 2006, there had been the 'proxy war' > between America and Iran fought out in Lebanon between their two regional > allies, Israel and Hezbollah. That war ended badly for Israel and emboldened > Iran to defy the United Nations and, more to the point, the United States > over its nuclear ambitions. George W. Bush's hopes of bringing 'peace > through democracy' to the Middle East after his invasion of Iraq had already > worn > thin by autumn 2006. Anti-war demonstrations had become more numerous and > security tightened everywhere. The crude dum-dum bullet fired into the > President's stomach that November day caused fatal bleeding and the media > were reporting the suspected assassin's details within minutes. Few people > in America needed to know more than that the suspected killer of their > President was Syrian-born. As the spotlight of blame focused on Syria, > regarded by Americans as Iran's poodle, the Iranian Foreign Ministry didn't > help its cause by issuing a perfunctory statement expressing regret that the > President had 'died in a violent manner' and hoping that the American people > would soon choose a new one who would be more peace-loving. It outraged > Americans and George W's mother Barbara was overheard at the state funeral > telling Cherie Blair: 'It was like what you say to the maid when her dog gets > run over. Get a new one, dear, you'll get over it.' The American public > wasn't > interested in the formal regrets from Damascus and Tehran. Television > coverage showed scenes of jubilation on the streets of Syrian and Iranian > cities. The new President, speaking from a 'secure location' soon nicknamed > Bunker One, announced that 'those who celebrate death will learn to taste it > soon enough'. Dick Cheney appeared unfazed by the day's gruesome events. > While America closed ranks and mourned, across the Islamic world Bush's death > was greeted with outpourings of joy. American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan > got into firefights with local militias shooting in the air. Saddam's trial > was suspended as the defendants hugged each other in the dock. But what > hurt Americans most was the Europeans' lack of grief. Officially, Europe, > from Brussels to Berlin and Paris, expressed sorrow and outrage, and > President Chirac led the EU mourners in Washington. But there was nothing > like the sadness which greeted Kennedy's murder four decades earlier. > Despite Britain's > own experience of Islamic terrorism, the public response to the murder of the > American president here was muted, at best — and in some quarters, not all > Muslim, it was joyful. The Independent newspaper published its obituary > with a front-page collage under the headline 'Latest victim of war on > terror'. A passport-style photograph of the late President was put in > alphabetical order between a Marine sergeant, George Urban Bush, killed in > Iraq the day before and an Air Force pilot, Ryan Caldwell, killed in a > helicopter crash near Kabul on the same day the President was shot. The BBC > played a montage of Bush's malapropisms from 'Don't mis-underestimate me' to > 'The nostalgia for my administration will only begin after it's over'. The > book of condolence at the U.S. embassy in London was thin, though the > ambassador diplomatically put the short queue waiting to sign down to 'fear > of a terrorist attack'. At home and abroad, the gloating over Bush's death > soon gave way to > a sober realisation that he had actually been a check on Dick Cheney's > ruthless way of defending America from enemies at home or abroad. Executive > orders authorising detention without trial of citizens as well as aliens > suspected of 'terrorist affiliations' and closing America's borders were > signed off with astonishing alacrity, as were military plans to strike > regimes that had celebrated Bush's death. Syria was attacked, but Iran bore > the brunt. Mass strikes by bombers and cruise missiles knocked out any > capacity Iran had for making modern weapons, let alone nuclear bombs, but at > a huge price. A country of 70million cowered under the shadow of burning oil > wells and the pollution from devastated petro-chemical plants. Fighting > Iran turned out to be much bloodier than the blitzkrieg against Saddam's > Iraq. Iran's Revolutionary Guards had learned the lessons of Hezbollah's > war with Israel. They avoided head-on confrontation with the U.S. Army's > armoured columns. > Ambush and sabotage were their weapons. A grim war went on year after year > in the lunar landscape which was much of Iran. As America struggled to find a > replacement for the Ayatollahs' regime, even the willing support of Iranian > émigrés from America wanting to wipe away the stain of the assassin's crime > could not build a stable pro-U.S. government in Tehran. In Britain, > America's strike against Iran set off protests from East London to Yorkshire. > Islamic radicals declared emirates in Blackburn and Bradford. Petrol bombs > flew as the police tried to restore order. Tony Blair decided he couldn't > retire in a crisis. Instead David Cameron's Tories joined him in a National > Government as endemic disorder in some urban areas was compounded by a > dramatic increase in attacks on British troops in Basra and in parts of > Afghanistan. When Tony Blair stepped down in 2009 to join President > Cheney's Anti-Assassination Commission, it was David Cameron who won the > election, attacking > Gordon Brown as out of touch with a world in crisis. Oil prices went on > climbing steadily, and no one needs reminding that petrol today is still £3 a > litre here and that David Cameron's 'green is the colour of national > security' government only lets you buy 30 litres a week. But for America, > it was crises closer to home following George Bush's murder that shaped > events. Donald Rumsfeld at the Pentagon 'Those who celebrate death will > learn to taste it soon enough' A grim war went on year after year in Iran > seemed rejuvenated. Even as U.S. planes and cruise missiles struck at > targets across Iran, American naval power went into action against Iran's > ally Hugo Chavez, the President of Venezuela. A wave of protests swept Latin > America. Chaos engulfed much of Mexico, sending waves of refugees north to > the American border. US troops tried to keep them out and 'suspect types' > were shipped to Guantanamo Bay for screening. The Guantanamo Bay camp was > enlarged to > accommodate the internees. Castro's regime protested. The ailing Fidel wasn't > really in charge any more and his brother, Raul, tried to boost his own > public image by organising a mass march to the U.S. base. Whatever the > younger Castro meant to happen, the carefully orchestrated crowds began to > pull at the fences around the camp and then to try to climb it. What > happened next is disputed. The U.S. Marines guarding the camp claimed Cuban > secret policemen shot at the people trying to climb into the base to stop > them escaping from communism. The Cuban authorities said their security > forces opened fire to defend the protesters, who were being attacked by the > Yankee soldiers. Soon 113 people, including women and children, were dead. > The 'Guantanamo Massacre' provoked outrage in Havana. Cheney told Rumsfeld to > 'swat' Castro's regime once and for all. Another war of liberation broke out. > The backlash from these attempts to resolve America's foreign problems with > decisive > military strikes overshadowed the domestic impact of Bush's death. Iranian > and Arab Americans weathered the wave of revenge pogroms set off by the > assassination, but the bureaucracy of Homeland Security extended its > surveillance over them, and pretty well anyone else. Cheney's re-election > campaign in 2008 was conducted in a virtual state of emergency, with him > addressing the Republican convention by 3D video link from a secure location. > The mood of ongoing crisis, combined with the choice of Jeb Bush as his Vice > President, widely seen in America as a tribute to the slain President, > ensured him a landslide. For a man with a history of heart problems, > Cheney's survival for almost ten years as president during what the New York > Times called 'Our Time of Troubles' was remarkable. 'I thrive on crisis,' > Cheney explained, 'it was peace that got me tense.' Occasionally he was short > of breath, but Cheney even turned this to his advantage. Images of President > Cheney in a > wheelchair at Thanksgiving 2010 were carefully choreographed to recall > Franklin Roosevelt in charge of the war effort 70 years earlier. Despite > the mayhem since Bush's murder, most Americans had preferred to stick by Dick > Cheney. His no-nonsense manner reassured, even as crises kept recurring. > For an embattled America and its allies, this endless war, with its > relentless suicide bombings, anarchy in countries all over the globe and > brutal reprisals, became known as a 'clash of civilisations'. But how much > worthy of the name civilisation remained to be defended? ¦ MARK ALMOND is > Reader in Modern History at Oriel College, Oxford. > > >--------------------------------- >Yahoo! Messenger with Voice. 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