I watched "Real Time" with Bill Maher this week and Benjamin 
Netanyahu was his first guest.

Remember that back in 1980 or thereabouts Israeli warplanes flew 
into Iraq and bombed the hell out of their nuclear reactor program 
(I specifically remember it because at the precise time they were 
doing the bombing, the jet I was on was returning from my India 
course and was somewhere between Bahrain and Frankfurt...I could 
have literally been overhead when the bombing occured).

Well, on Maher's show, Netanyahu was asked about the recent 
Lebanese/Israeli conflict and what he said was very, very 
interesting.  He said something to the effect: we in Israel have no 
problem with Lebanon; we have no problem with Hezbollah.  Who we 
have a probleme with is Iran.

What odds do you want to give me that more sooner than later Israel 
will go it alone and, if they need to, unilaterally fly into Iran 
and bomb what they suspect are nuclear facilities.

If they do that, what do you think will happen to the price of 
oil...$80 a barrel?  $100?  $150?  $200?

Well, if you do and want to make a calculated risk in making alot of 
money, here's what you do:

Buy $10,000 worth of December crude call options.  You can buy a 
December call with a strike price of $105 for 2 cents a barrel (say 
3 cents including commission).

That means that for every 3 cent move above $105.00 a barrel, you 
would double your money.

So if oil went up to $106.00 a barrel (just a dollar above your 
strike price of $105.00) and you sold your options, then your 
$10,000 would be worth 33 times more (because 3 cents divides into a 
dollar 33 times) and your $10,000 would be worth $330,000.

If oil went up to $140.00 a barrel then your $10,000 would turn into 
$10,000,000 (because 3 cents divides into $35.00 -- the difference 
between your $105.00 strike price and $140.00 -- at least a thousand 
times).

Of course, the option has a life of only 67 days from today.  But, 
hey, who's to say what can happen?

What if some nutty Osama type committed some horrible ultra violence 
and it also affected oil prices?

Well, it's a big risk but a helluva better bet than Las Vegas!

Anyone have a spare $10,000 sitting around they want to gamble with?






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