I had never heard of Ron Paul before I read about him in FFL. I have not heard about him outside of FFL since then. I have to ask how people outside of Iowa even know who he is, if the news does nto cover him. Perhaps fewer than are in the domes these days.
--- off_world_beings <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > --- In [email protected], "boo_lives" > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > wrote: > > > > First I work with advanced statistics every day, > and in political > > polling or market research a sample of 15,000 is > much more > significant > > than a sample of 266. > National polls for the entire country typically > > use only a sample size of a few thousand. But I'm > not talking some > > kind of theoretical math, I'm talking common sense > politics. The > > Iowa straw poll is the one in which the > politicians are actually in > > the state wanting to win and the media are in the > state giving it > > coverage. >> > > You're still not getting it: > > Romney: 4516 votes; Paul: 1305 votes > > Romney: > 4516/3,000,000 = x/100 > = 0.15% > (insignificant) > > > Paul: > 1305/3,000,000 = x/100 > = 0.4% > (insignificant) > > The straw poll in Iowa has no significance, with a > Romney and > millions spent win. No-one cares it is not > significant. He amy win > the nomination though, I am not saying that. But > this is not a > predictor of it. However, a Ron Paul win, or other > underdog win > there would have been a massive national news item. > > <This has historically always been the case. > There's not > > some conspiracy against Paul because the Alabama > straw poll wasn't > > covered by the media, it never is! >> > > Conceded. I never said it was. Stop making things > up. > > << And the politicians know that so > > they don't care about it! Except Paul apparently - > in Alabama Paul > got > > 216 out of 266 votes - you think this is > statistically > representative > > of anything?? It's an absurd result>> > > Agreed. And so is the Iowa straw poll. > > it's not even an outlier in the > > universe of political polls out there right now. > It's meaningless > to > > win a race, when you're the only one there trying. > > > > > The iowa straw poll is not a good statistical > predictor of exactly > how > > Iowa will "vote" at the caucus next year because > it was a > relatively > > small turnout and you have to travel to Ames to > vote and you had to > > pay to vote, >> > > You have just shot yourself in the foot. 26,000 > people paid to vote, > and only 14,700 actaully voted. > > Why is that? > > > > PS -- Let's put our statistical knowledge to the > test - I'll bet > you > > $1000 that Paul will not win the Iowa Caucus next > year.>> > > > I never said he would win it. Stop making things up. > > Ron Paul will not win the Republican nomination, as > I have said all > along. He will then run as an independent and make a > HUGE impact on > American politics. > > Excpet for one thing. The Diebold machines will be > used to swing all > the main elections. They are entirely open to > manipulation and in > Iowa, the police were used to HIDE ALL THE VOTES > FROM THE PUBLIC... > FOREVER. THIS IS HOW IT WILL BE FOR YOU IN AMERICA > IF YOU DO NOT > WAKE UP ! > > OffWorld > > . > > > > To subscribe, send a message to: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Or go to: > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ > and click 'Join This Group!' > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > ____________________________________________________________________________________ Luggage? GPS? Comic books? Check out fitting gifts for grads at Yahoo! Search http://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=oni_on_mail&p=graduation+gifts&cs=bz
