"Joseph E. Olson" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:

> ������� Jim Lindgren's "report"concerning John Lott's survey of defensive gun
> usage got wide publicity on several blogs.� But the concerns I raise haven't
> yet been exposed.� They should be, IMHO.
> 
> �
> 
> ������� Jim Lindgren concludes that David Gross took a 1996 survey by a
> professional polling organization done as part of a study by Hemenway and
> Azrael at Harvard rather than a 1997 survey�taken by students as part of a
> study John Lott of Chicago was conducting.�

That is not Lindgren's conclusion.  He stated that Gross's description
of the questions fit the Hemenway survey better than Lott's alleged
survey.  Most importantly, the answer to this question:

  1) During the last year, were you ever threatened with physical
  violence or harmed by another person or were you present when
  someone else faced such a situation?

should have been "no".

My opinion is that he wasn't surveyed in either survey since neither
fit and Gross was one of the prime movers behind the recently passed
concealed-carry law in Minnesota. It is highly unlikely that someone
with this great a motive for preserving Lott's credibility would be
included in a random sample of 2,000 people.

That doesn't mean that Gross made the story up--there is another
possibility. Gross may have been contacted because there was a news
story about his defensive gun use. You see, if you are designing the
questions for a defensive gun use survey, you might want to test the
questions out on a few people to see if they elicit the information
you are after. The trouble here is that if you call people at random
you will have to call hundreds of people before you get enough people
who have used guns to properly test your questions. So what you can do
is call some people who you know have used a gun for defence and try
your questions out on them. I found a news story published in 2002
that reported Gross's activism and his defensive gun use. Obviously
that story could not have caused someone to contact him in 1998 (or
1997 or 1996) and ask questions about defensive gun use, but if there
was a story in 2002 there could have been an earlier story as well.

So it's conceivable that Lott was thinking of doing a survey in 1997
and Gross was contacted to test some possible questions. (This would
also explain why the questions that Gross reported don't match Lott's
survey.) But even this most generous interpretation of the evidence
doesn't help Lott, since even if you show he was planning to conduct a
survey, there is still no evidence that he actually conducted a
survey, and plenty of evidence that he didn't.

-- 
Tim
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