This isn't quite what it appears to be. The way the police records crime in the UK has been changed many times over the past few years and year-on-year changes don't mean anything (what it does tell us is that UK police-recorded crime has probably been seriously under-recorded in the past).
The only half-way decent trend estimates on crime in the UK therefore come from the British Crime Survey, which I don't regard as highly as the NCVS. Yet their overall picture is probably accurate -- violent crime has been decreasing overall. This is explained in the rest of the PA piece, although their alarmist presentation of the recorded crime changes is annoying. Here's the executive summary from the Home Office report: Crimes against adults in England and Wales decreased by two per cent in 2002/03, according to the British Crime Survey. * There has been a 25 per cent fall in crime measured by the BCS in the five years between 1997 and 2002/03. * Crimes recorded by the police decreased by three per cent in 2002/03, after taking into account the impact of the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) on recording practices. * Police recording of those crimes reported to them is now at an historic high of 70 per cent, according to the BCS. * The risk of becoming a victim of crime remains at an historic low (around 27%) according to the BCS, one-third lower than the risk in 1995 (40%). * There has been a 39 per cent fall in burglary as measured by the BCS since 1997. The trend in domestic burglary appears to have levelled out this year, with a small non-statistically significant increase in the BCS (up 1%) and a small fall in recorded crimes (down 2%), once the effects of the NCRS have been accounted for. * Vehicle-related thefts fell by five per cent this year according to the BCS, and by nine per cent according to recorded crime (adjusted for the NCRS). * Violent crimes experienced by adults living in private households in 2002/03 remained stable, following falls in each survey since 1995. BCS violence has fallen by 24 per cent since 1997. The numbers of recorded violent crimes have been heavily affected by the introduction of the NCRS, but once adjusted for this there was a two per cent increase. * Within this total there have been an increases in the BCS estimate for woundings, although this increase is not statistically significant. Last January the Home Office reported an increase of 27 per cent in recorded firearm offences in 2001/02, and the statistics for 2002/03 will be published later this year. * Recorded robberies fell by 14 per cent in 2002/03 (adjusted for the NCRS), following the introduction of the Street Crime Initiative in ten forces at the beginning of the year. * The number of detections recorded by the police in 2002/2003 was eight per cent higher than in 2001/2002. * In spite of the significant falls in the main volume crimes in recent years, almost three-quarters of the public still believe that the national crime rate has been rising. I would take this all with a pinch of salt -- British statistics have been subject to political manipulation behind the scenes since at least 1969 from both main parties. Another important thing to bear in mind is that under-16s and businesses are excluded from the BCS, and anecdotal evidence suggests there may have been an increase in violence involving under-16s, although there's no way to be sure. With those caveats, I'd rather take the BCS word for it than the recorded crime figures. Iain Murray -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Thursday, April 29, 2004 3:18 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: UK: Violent crime figures rise by 11% Violent crime figures rise by 11% Press Association Thursday April 29, 2004 Violent crime rose 11% in the final three months of 2003 compared with the same period in 2002, Home Office figures revealed today. Latest figures show 271,500 incidents of violent crime were recorded by police in England and Wales from October to December 2003. More serious violent crimes such as murder and serious wounding rose by 13%, while "less serious" violent crime such as assaults increased 21% period-on-period to 106,000 incidents. The number of sexual offences rose 6% to 12,600 while robberies fell 7% to 23,900. Ministers said that much of the increase was down to "low level" thuggery, as they announced a new crackdown on alcohol-fuelled violence. ... Please see the following link for the rest of the article: http://www.guardian.co.uk/crime/article/0,2763,1206134,00.html Rich _______________________________________________ To post, send message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof
