When Dr. Wintemute states (http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMp0800859?query=TOC) the 30% case fatality rate for 30,674 gunshot deaths and 70,000 injuries in 2005 to compare to fatality rate for motorcyclists (4,553 deaths and 87,000 unintentional accidental injuries according to http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/nrd-30/NCSA/TSF2005/810620.pdf), he should be comparing to the 5% motorcyclist case fatality rate or 30/5 = 6, not 18 as he states it. But his comparison is not fair since shootings have huge number of intentional acts and motorcycles accidents are mostly unintentional. If he wishes to compare case fatality rates of unintended shooting injuries with case fatality rates for motorcyclists, the ratio. Figure 13 of "Surveillance for Fatal and Nonfatal Injuries --- United States, 2001," Sara B. Vyrostek, Joseph L. Annest, Ph.D., George W. Ryan, Ph.D., Office of Statistics and Programming National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, (http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5307a1.htm#fig13) shows fatal injury from firearm unintended injury had approximately a 10% case rate whereas motorcycle case fatal rate was about 3% in the same figure (again, nowhere near a ratio of 18). For context, we note drownings show a case rate of more than 25% in this figure. Granting, for the moment, Dr. Wintemute is correct on the annual cost of gun shot treatments as $2 billion -- which, given his record, isn't a reasonable grant -- Dr. Wintemute owes us some context for this cost. Since he provides none, we'll consider a few comparisons. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (see http://www.nhtsa.gov/people/injury/pedbimot/motorcycle/Motorcycle_HTML/appa.html), the annual cost for motorcycle accidents is $18,327 Million ($18.3 billion) or 9 times Wintemute's firearm injury cost. This number is dwarfted (http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/nrd-30/NCSA/TSFAnn/TSF2005.pdf) by the 38,189 motor vehicle accident fatalities and 4,816,000 injuries which are estimated to cost $230.6 billion in 2000 (see pdf page 2 of 222). That is, intentional and unintentional firearm injury costs are less than 1% of all vehicle accident injury costs. According to a University of Michigan press release, February 24, 2003 (http://www.med.umich.edu/opm/newspage/2003/cold.htm), the U.S. annual cost of the common cold is $40 billion. So, the common cold annually costs 20 times more than Dr. Wintemute's firearm injurys. Dr. Wintemute does not regularly read of events like the killing of Yoshihiro Hattori because they happen infrequently. If he regularly did read of such events, he wouldn't have to reach back 16 years for an example. I think I could spend the next week addressing other "errors" made by Dr. Wintemute, but life is too short. Readers of "scientific" literature in any field should have a healthy skepticism of reports -- the scientific method demands that attitude. This particular report is an editorial disguised as science. There is no science here that I could see. Phil _______________________________________________ To post, send message to [email protected] To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or wrongly) forward the messages to others.
