When behavioralism started becoming the approach of choice in the political science study of public law, about three or four decades ago, such statistical analyses began to be the wave of the future. I haven't kept up but assume that some of the political scientists have gone from statistical analysis of justices alone to statistical analyses of their reactions to lower courts. It's what the field does now. (I'm told it's sometimes hard any longer to find someone to teach case-law constitutional law in political science departments.)
-----Original Message----- From: Robert Woolley [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Thursday, October 23, 2003 11:40 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: predicting SCOTUS Has anyone ever done research on predicting a decision of the Supreme Court based on the lopsidedness of the circuit split that the case is meant to resolve? I'm guessing that when there is a single dissenting circuit on a well-defined dichotomous question, we'd see a lower probability of the minority view being upheld as the number of circuits in the majority increases. That is, SCOTUS is more likely to side with the majority when the split is, say, 8-1 than when it is only 3-1 or so. If such data have been compiled (by somebody with way too much time on his hands), what would this factor, considered by itself, indicate about the probability of Silveira being reversed on the individual-rights question, assuming it were granted cert? (Disclaimer: Obviously I'm aware that the *best* such statistics could provide would be a crude measurement, and many other factors are involved. But almost none of them would be quantifiable. If it could be shown, e.g., that there has only been one occasion on which the court has gone with the lone dissenter when the split is 8 or more to 1, and 33 times in that situation that it has gone with the majority, I think that would be useful information.) -- Bob Woolley St. Paul, MN [EMAIL PROTECTED] I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, and I won't be laid a hand on. I don't do these things to other people, and I require the same from them. -- John Wayne, as J.B. Books, in "The Shootist" (1976)
