http://timlambert.org/2003/11#1107
Lott is at it again. In a Tech Central Station column he claims:
Over 90 percent of the time simply brandishing the weapon stops an
attack.
I suppose we should be glad that rather than his 98% estimate based on
a fictional survey, or his 95% estimate based on a survey that gives a
different number, Lott is now advancing a number that actually comes
from a survey that was really carried out. Unfortunately, his 90%
number is based on a sample size of just seven gun users. This sample
size is too small to produce any meaningful estimate, and it is
dishonest for Lott to keep presenting this number over and over again
as if it meant something.
I appreciate that some people might find that the controversy about
Lott's cooking of his "More Guns, Less Crime" results too complicated
to follow, but this example leaves no wriggle room for Lott
apologists.
1. Lott's 2002 survey had just seven defensive gun users. Anyone
can check this by downloading the survey data from johnlott.org
2. A sample size of seven is far too small. Anyone who doesn't know
this already can check this by consulting a statistics text or someone
who has studied basic statistics.
How can anyone with a scrap of integrity excuse this?
Lott also deliberately omits any mention of the research that found
that safe storage laws were associated with a reduction in juvenile
accidental gun deaths. I suppose that is better than what he did in
his book and blog which was to misrepresent the methodology of that
research.
--
Tim
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