Hi Joseph, This is an interesting topic having to do specifically with the way humans process and weigh the validity of socially transmitted information. I would like to add "entry order effects" to the positive/negative bias you describe. I personally view cognition as a process that generates and relies on heuristic models, which are generally prone to entry order effects. In this context I think we tend to attribute validity to ideas or claims that we encounter first. The validity-bar is raised for subsequently encountered alternatives. Neither of these biases seem to reflect natural probabilities, although I can imagine that they might have had (still have?) selective value for our ancestors.
Regards, Guy on 11/12/09 9:26 AM, Joseph Brenner at [email protected] wrote: Dear Colleagues, Here is a possible, and timely, FIS discussion topic: The refusal of large numbers of people, especially health professionals, to be vaccinated against H1/N1 flu poses the question of the information, if any, on which they base this decision. If one goes back to the beginning of the epidemic, one notes several systems of highly negative (frightening) information: the new flu might be extremely dangerous; the pharmaceutical industry will be unable to produce a vaccine; even if it does, it will be dangerous because not tested sufficiently for profit reasons. Assuming the sources of this information are the media and certain "experts", one can see the assymetry in terms of responsibility: if the media are right to be negative, they look prescient; if they are wrong, and all goes well, as appears to be the case, no one cares and their role in propagating the information is quickly overlooked, if not forgotten. If, however, the media information had been neutral or positive, i.e. there was no reason to be alarmed, they might be attacked legally if a flu pandemic occurred. Negative information "sells" better than positive information. The really frightening result of the original negative information, however, is that it seems to override the current positive information, statements by Ministers of Health, etc: people don't get vaccinated, and the pandemic becomes more probable! My questions are to what extent has the theory of value-laden information and this kind of dynamic been studied and what kind of public discussion of it is desirable and possible? I look forward to comments. Best wishes, Joseph _______________________________________________ fis mailing list [email protected] https://webmail.unizar.es/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/fis
