> The real problem is not market share but "mind share". That is, even
> if the proportion of users viewing your site via an iPad is small, the
> reaction from clients when they realize their content isnt viewable on
> the magical device will be disproportionally large. It becomes
> stickier still when you consider that a big percentage of the people
> who will use iPads are in the ad/creative/communications world, eg the
> same people making decisions and recommendations for whether or not to
> use Flash. If you're sitting in a conference room in which 90% of the
> people have iPhones and there are a few iPads sitting on the table,
> arguing that the percentage of non-Flash users is negligible becomes
> tougher.

That's definitely how Apple views this, anyway. That's the bet they're
making. As a Flash developer, though, you are obviously going to bet
the other way, right?

Fortunately for us, I don't think that's going to happen. While 90% of
the people in the conference room may have iPhones, I haven't seen any
indicator that leads me to expect that sort of buy-in for iPads. I was
just chatting with a creative director I know - a real Apple zealot -
and he told me he didn't see any value in the iPad. The people in the
conference room will already have MacBooks, etc, and Flash will work
fine on those (once they release a version of Flash Player that uses
the new hardware APIs that Apple just released - and that have been
around in Windows for ages).

And, you know, once people see that Flash can work well on other
devices, maybe the iPhone won't be as popular as it is. I'm seeing a
few people switch from iPhone to Android (mostly from frustration with
ATT, actually). Aside from the breadth of the App Store, there really
isn't any advantage that iPhone has over the Android 2.1 phones.

Dave Watts, CTO, Fig Leaf Software
http://www.figleaf.com/
http://training.figleaf.com/

Fig Leaf Software is a Veteran-Owned Small Business (VOSB) on
GSA Schedule, and provides the highest caliber vendor-authorized
instruction at our training centers, online, or onsite.
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