HTML5 is finally on the downslide of the gartner hype cycle's peak of
inflated expectations. So it makes sense that people are starting to
pronounce it's death. Mark Zuckerberg has caught on with his comments
about native apps vs. HTML5 from last week too.
HTML always had a place, and probably will until another document spec
supersedes it. I wouldn't bet the future of my company on it though.
I wrote about this a while ago:
http://www.unfocus.com/2011/11/09/flash-and-air-nothing-but-opportunity/
The market is splitting, and that's great. Both are growing, one is just
growing faster. BTW, FaceBook's whole play was making apps out of web
apps, and providing ways for app makers to monetize those apps while FB
gets a tax - that's why Facebook is in scramble mode, they are trying to
compete for attention against far more rapid growth from device apps,
which also happen to take a far larger tax. Its not a short term problem
because the desktop/laptop install base is so large (same for Flash
gaming), but they will hit a wall at some point, and that's what their
horrible stock numbers are about.
Kevin N.
P.S. I wrote that before I witnessed the horrible PR nightmare that
Adobe created (and still hasn't addressed). I have less confidence in
Adobe as a company than I did when I wrote that. On the technology, I
still think Flash is well positioned to be a killer multi-platform app
toolkit. I just can't say I believe Adobe will be able to execute well
enough to capitalize on it. I think they're leadership is too busy
chasing the fads of Wall Street, rather than generating their own as any
technology company must. The Adobe evangelists have caught a terminal
case of pragmatism too. Since when is technology about pragmatism? Pft.
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