Jeff is kind of right. It's got more prickles than just 'free air time', as if Adobe do start getting into tracking the competition publically they will in turn illustrate its growth rate, in which case this could end badly for everyone on the list (as it just got that much harder to sell Flex into mainstream development teams).
Moreover, I don't think they know to be blunt, as the ubiquity study has not been touched in ages, and it's showing signs of its actual age with growing questions around its accuracy. Adobe have also been contradicting themselves lately with download numbers (why oh why did they bend to Microsoft's will on this is something I would love to ask their marketing team). An example was when Emmy mention <http://weblogs.macromedia.com/emmy/archives/2008/09/two_four_six_eight_\ numbers_we_appreciate.html> in July 2008 80% of the 18million installs (per day) came from the ActiveX Page on Adobe.com. This in turn highlights that there is not only 18million per day installing Flash, but 80% of them are not doing it via the Adobe Updater as we have all been spoon feed to believe. The truth of the matter however, is that Windows XP has always been a strong distribution force in their story around ubiquity, but given it's now no longer allowed to be sold by OEM providers, this in turn means Adobe have to fight a new battle around their distribution story. The OEM bundling or any deals like this is where the full attention should now be, as the average user online right now has proven they aren't scared of plug-ins for one and two it's considered a normal "thing" now days, despite the `fear' campaigns. Signs of positive growth from Adobe are there if you look, for instance the 20million AIR installs seemed impressive, yet as Phillip Kerman <http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:MtIfIHrlwCEJ:blog.digitalbackcount\ ry.com/%3Fp%3D1636+Phillip+Kerman+20+million&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=3&gl=us> pointed out (which Ryan Stewart has now suddenly deleted this post? which just confirms it even further), the real story there is that 20million AIR installs didn't come from the "twitter" like applications, it actually came from Acrobat 9 bundling, as you can't opt out of the AIR installation. Tactics like this is where the next version of the story is going to end up, and the 98% statistic is not illustrating the true story, as if you fast forward and assume Flash and Silverlight both have 90% ubiquity, what will the conversation be next? Adobe need to ignore Silverlight battles as they are fighting the wrong battle. They need to get back to basics again as being successful is one thing, retaining success now this is the real fight they have on their hands. As ubiquity is more a state of mind, phsycological if you will around plug-in fatigue and less about realistic expecations of end users. - P.R http://shadowoperative.blogspot.com/ <http://shadowoperative.blogspot.com/> --- In [email protected], "Battershall, Jeff" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Why would you want to do that? Isn't it the classic marketing error to > provide free airtime to the competition? In addition, if you start > reporting such statistics you become responsible for their accuracy and > that's not something that I think Adobe would be interested in, as least > as regards a competitor's product. > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Merrill, Jason > Sent: Tuesday, September 23, 2008 2:34 PM > To: [email protected] > Subject: [flexcoders] OT: FP Ubiquity Stats Lack Silverlight > Comparison > > > > Excuse the mild OT, just curious if anyone knows why Microsoft > Silverlight stats are not included here in penetration comparisons: > > > > http://www.adobe.com/products/player_census/flashplayer/ > > > > It would seem to me, with Silverlight having fairly low > penetration stats I would imagine (even after the Olympics) that this > would be a huge marketing plus for Adobe. Millward Brown, commissioned > by Adobe, did the survey just this past June, it seems silly the product > most closely competing with the Flash Player is Silverlight and it's not > included in the comparison. > > > > And if someone at Adobe is listening, this is important since > this page is linked to from some Creative Suite 4 promo pages on the > site, for example, the page touting Illustrator's Flash player > capabilities: > > http://www.adobe.com/products/illustrator/?promoid=BPDEG > > > > Anyway, just a mild rant for the day. J Maybe someone can pass > this on to the right folks at Adobe. > > > > Jason Merrill > Bank of America > Instructional Technology & Media > > Join the Bank of America Flash Platform Developer Community > <blocked::http://sharepoint.bankofamerica.com/sites/tlc/flash/default.as > px> > > Are you a Bank of America associate interested in innovative > learning ideas and technologies? > Check out our internal Innovative Learning Blog > <blocked::http://sharepoint.bankofamerica.com/sites/ddc/rd/blog/default. > aspx> & subscribe > <blocked::http://sharepoint.bankofamerica.com/sites/ddc/rd/blog/_layouts > /SubNew.aspx?List=\%7b41BD3FC9-BB07-4763-B3AB-A6C7C99C5B8D\%7d&Source=ht > tp://sharepoint.bankofamerica.com/sites/ddc/rd/blog/Lists/Posts/Archive. > aspx> . >
