Foreign Correspondent
Inside Track On World News
By International Syndicated Columnist & Broadcaster
Eric Margolis <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
www.foreigncorrespondent.com
A STRAIT TOO FAR
By
Eric Margolis 8 August 1999
NEW YORK - Last week tropical hurricanes and political crises battered
East Asia. A most inauspicious time, as Chinese astrologers would say.
Rumors swept Taiwan that China was preparing to invade the island
republic. In the midst of a war of words against the United States, China
pointedly announced the successful test of a new mobile ICBM, the DF-31,
capable of reaching North America.
North Korea showed every intention of going ahead with an imminent test of
its new intermediate-range missile, the Taepodong-2, which will be able to
hit North America when a third stage is added. Old enemies South Korea
and Japan were so enraged by North Korea, they actually agreed to hold
joint naval exercises.
The growing crisis over increasingly independence-minded Taiwan is causing
deepening concern across Asia and in Washington. For domestic political
reasons that remain obscure, Taiwan's president, Lee Teng-hui, recently
announced a new policy that appeared to move his nation of 21.6 million
closer to full independence from China. As expected, Beijing reacted with
fury, denouncing the `rogue province of Taiwan,' and threatening war.
China massed troops along the coast of Fukien Province opposite Taiwan and
launched provocative air and naval patrols across the 100-mile wide
Formosa Strait separating the breakaway island from the mainland. Taiwan
responded by increasing its patrols, raising the danger of a clash between
the opposing forces.
Taiwan braced for a repeat of China's 1996 missile barrages at the island,
put it 376,000-man armed forces on high alert, and activated extensive
coastal defense fortifications. Deliveries to Taiwan by the US of
military material was sharply increased. Intensifying China's
psychological warfare against Taiwan, Red Chinese agents on the island
spread rumors an invasion was imminent.
In fact, China is unlikely to mount such a massive operation against
Taiwan or the nearby Pescadore Islands anytime soon. China's weak navy has
only 72 dedicated amphibious ships, capable of landing about 12,000 troops
and 100 tanks per mission. The Chinese Marine Corps numbers one active,
5,000 man brigade. China has three airborne divisions but lacks transport
aircraft to drop more than one brigade at a time.
Transporting the minimum 500,000-1,000,000 troops needed to conqueror
Taiwan would mean employing a vast armada of lumbering junks and rusty
coastal transports that would be sitting ducks for air and naval attack.
China faces the same problem Germany encountered when planning to invade
Britain. The huge but obsolescent Chinese Air Force cannot guarantee top
cover for an invasion fleet, nor neutralize Taiwan's air fields and fleet.
China's 50's vintage, brown-water navy cannot assure Taiwan's 36 surface
combatants, many armed with anti-ship missiles, will not cause heavy loses
to a Chinese invasion fleet. Nor does China have the naval gunfire
capability to overcoming Taiwan's powerful shore defenses that would
massacre landing troops.
More important, China fears the US 7th Fleet's carrier aircraft and
submarines would intervene to halt any invasion. The result would be what
US military men call, `a million-man swim.' China's invasion fleet would
be sunk. Any Chinese beachheads would be cut off from supplies and
reinforcements.
If China choses the military option, a more likely scenario would be an
amphibious assault on the small islands of Matsu and Quemoy, which lie
within sight of the Chinese coast. But these little Gibraltars are
heavily fortified and protected by batteries of Israeli-supplied anti-ship
missiles. The islands could be taken, but the price for China would be
very high, and attacking them might trigger US intervention.
China could opt to merely bombard Taiwan with M-9 and M-11 missiles,
aiming at industrial complex, airports and ports, in an effort to degrade
the island's economy and deter maritime trade. Any major attack on
Taiwan, which lives by export trade, would scare off merchant vessels and
make insurance rates prohibitive. Air attacks are equally possible, but
China's obsolete warplanes lack range, bomb load, avionics and endurance
to do to Taiwan what NATO did to Serbia. Taiwan has good pilots and a
modern air force equipped with 90 US F-16's and French Mirage 2000's that
would do a turkey shoot with China's old MiG-19's and 21's variants, and
even its handful of modern, Russian-supplied SU-27's.
China could also to throw a submarine blockade around Taiwan that would
even more effectively drive away its vital maritime trade and even bring
the rebellious island to its knees. But the US would be very likely to
send its highly skilled ASW forces to break the blockade by China's old,
noisy submarines that are slow and easy to detect. Taiwan could retaliate
by mining the Chinese ports of Hong Kong, Canton, Amoy, Fuchou, and
Shanghai.
Much as China would like to invade Taiwan, it clearly lacks the military
capability to do so. So it's more likely Beijing will continue to bombard
Taiwan with threats and perhaps a few missiles to underline its point.
Behind all the threats, China and Taiwan still need one another, Taiwan
has over US $30 billion invested in mainland China. Taiwan has many
friends in the US, notably in the Republican Party. Threatening Taiwan
could backfire on China by producing an embargo on its important exports
to the USA.
So despite all the hot air and theatrical fury, it's still business as
usual between China and her prodigal daughter - at least for this week.
Copyright eric margolis 1999
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