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A sea of danger surrounds Taiwan By Eric Margolis March 26, 2000 HONG KONG - If Kashmir is the world’s most dangerous place, as President Clinton said this week in India, then the narrow Taiwan Strait ranks number two. China is thundering it will attack Taiwan if the island’s newly elected government makes any moves towards independence. Chinese military units opposite the island republic are being reinforced. China still lacks amphibious capability and long-ranged aircraft to mount a successful invasion of Taiwan, though it could take the offshore islands of Matsu and Quemoy. But Taiwan’s well-trained, 240,000-man army, with 300,000-500,000 effective reserves, is dug-in behind belts of fortifications with interlocking fields of fire, large numbers of heavy guns, and batteries of Israeli-supplied anti-ship missiles. Half Taiwan is flat, but densely urbanized and covered by factories; the rest is wooded mountains – both ideal positions for defensive warfare. China would need to transport and keep supplied 600,000-800,000 men and their equipment across the 90-mile Taiwan Strait, a force larger than the initial 1944 D-Day landings in Normandy. Chinese losses would be enormous. No matter, it seems. In the 1979 border war with Vietnam, China showed a shocking profligacy with its soldiers lives, losing over 70,000 dead and wounded in 30-day’s fighting. Chinese generals shrugged off these staggering losses as `acceptable.’ China would be similarly unconcerned over heavy casualties invading Taiwan. Beijing’s problem is not men, but lack of sealift, logistics, and air support. Taiwan’s 16 destroyers, 21 frigates, and fast-attack craft would inflict severe damage on an invading fleet. However, Taiwan has only two modern submarines. The air force’s 60 Mirage 2000-5’s and 150 F-16’s would chew up squadrons of China’s obsolescent combat aircraft, at least until overwhelming numbers, combat attrition, and saturation bombardment by 800 Chinese M-11 missiles neutralized Taiwan’s air bases. If the US 7th Fleet’s two carrier battle groups intervened, China’s invasion armada of troop transports, trawlers, and junks would be turned into what the US Navy calls, `a million-man swim.’ China is moving fast to counter this threat with 50 Russian-supplied SU-27 long-ranged fighters(with 200 on order) and Kilo-class submarines. China is also struggling to develop nuclear subs and more deadly anti-ship missiles, and has recently acquired two `Sovremenny’-class destroyers from Russia armed with long-ranged SSN-23 missiles designed to attack aircraft carriers. In the event of a clash over Taiwan, China has reportedly made a deal with North Korea to demonstrate along the DMZ or even attack South Korea- to draw US reaction forces and carrier battle groups northward. But China need not necessarily invade Taiwan to bring it to its knees. Blockade could prove almost as effective, and far less costly. Consider this scenario: China proclaims a maritime and air blockade of Taiwan, enforced by 60 Chinese attack submarines and surface units. Recall, by mid-1944, US submarine `wolf packs’ blockading Japan’s ports brought that island nation to an industrial and military standstill by cutting off all oil, raw materials, and food imports. China does the same to Taiwan. Taiwan lives on export commerce. China’s sea and air blockade, and mining of Taiwanese ports, forces airlines and shipping lines to avoid Taiwan rather than risk being attacked and/or incur punitive insurance rates for entering a war zone. Taiwan’s industry quickly grinds to a halt, bringing mass layoffs and shortages of food and fuel. The international economy is seriously affected by the blockade. Taiwan produces 67% of the world’s supply of microchips and many electronic components. Computer production lines in the US and Japan shut down; replacement parts for computer systems dry up. The tech-driven US stock market panics and nosedives. China’s exports to the US also take a big hit, but nothing like the damage to Taiwan’s 22 million people. This leaves the US three ugly choice: 1. Accept Beijing’s embargo and Taiwan’s inevitable surrender. 2. Place US flags on tankers and freighters headed into Taiwanese ports and pray they aren’t torpedoed or strike mines; 3. Order the 7th Fleet to break the blockade by minesweeping and hunting Chinese subs. This, of course, means - at minimum -a naval and air war with China. China would attack US bases on Okinawa, and even mainland Japan. If one or both of the fleet’s two attack carriers is hit by Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, the US will lose much of its combat capability in the South China Sea. The nearest air bases from Taiwan for reinforcing USAF units are 700 miles away. Many Taiwanese, facing economic collapse and grave food and fuel shortages, might demand their government kow-tow to Beijing and accept `re-union’ with the mainland. Selective Chinese missile bombardment of Taiwan’s cities, power plants, and ports, would accelerate this process. China would not need, as a recently leaked scare report in Beijing claimed, to hit Taiwan with neutron bombs, which kill people by emitting lethal radiation but leave property intact. So, China’s strategy is to bluster and bully. If that fails, blockade. And finally, if necessary, invade. But Beijing still can’t quite decide what it wants more right now, the emotional uplift of acquiring remote Taiwan, historically as much part of Japan as China, or the cash flow from continued access to America’s vast market. Copyright: E. Margolis, March 2000 "War at the Top of the World" – the struggle for Afghanistan, Kashmir and Tibet by Eric Margolis recently released in New York by Routledge - also available through amazon.com |
