The market is waiting today for the release of US Chicago PMI which is
expected to come lower again in Jan to 34.2 from 35.1 in December and
US University consuming sentiment figures of Jan which is expected to
get slightly higher to 56 from 54 in December.

We have had also today the release of US Q4 GDP advanced reading which
was expected to be -5.2% and it has come better than expected at just
-3.8%. The price deflator of this same quarter has come lower strongly
too to -.3% and the market was expected just a decline to 2% from 3.9%
in the third quarter showing increasing deflation pressure in US.

The single currency was under pressure today after the release of EU
flash HICP of Jan which came at just 1.1% y/y from 1.6% a month
earlier and the market was waiting for a decline to 1.4%. These
declines of inflation rates in EU can encourage the ECB further to cut
interest rate putting pressure on the single currency.

The cable could come over 1.4 in a profit taken wave which pushed it
back above 1.43 after reaching 1.3502 in an increasing optimistic risk
apatite wave in the equity markets following the US markets this week
amid the approving of Obama's 819b$ rescue plan and the release of
fed's US assessment after its meeting earlier this week which has
given the market its readiness to buy the long periods issued bonds
too in its efforts to stimulate the economy which could push S&P 500
above 875 and Dow above 8300. The FTSEE 100 has followed this same
risk confidence wave and it could come above 4200 before peaking out
around 4300 again which has put more difficulties in the face of the
cable to break above 1.444 again.

Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: [email protected]
http://www.fx-recommends.com

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