*** From [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Konrad M Lepecki) Przesylam ciekawy artykul o rozmieszczeniu w okregu Kaliningradzkim broni taktyczno-nuklearnej. > Copyright 2001 Jane's Information Group Limited, > All Rights Reserved > > Foreign Report > > February 1, 2001 > HEADLINE: Missiles in Kaliningrad > > BODY: > ON THE eve of President George W. Bush's inauguration, the > Washington Post newspaper published a remarkable piece of > information: Russia had installed tactical nuclear weapons in the > Kaliningrad region, the sliver of land on the Baltic Sea which > belongs to the Russian Federation, but which is sandwiched between > Poland and Lithuania (see map). The Post got the news directly from > the American intelligence services, which deliberately timed the > revelations to coincide with the inauguration of a new American > president. Both the Russian military moves and their revelation in > Washington are part of a wider Russian-American game which is just > beginning. We are now in a position to reveal how the real story > unfolded in the last few months. > > According to informal agreements reached between President George > Bush, the current president's father, and the Soviet leader, Mikhail > Gorbachov, in 1991-1992, Moscow withdrew its tactical nuclear arms > from Warsaw Pact countries and pledged to place them in 'depots'. > The Kremlin kept its word, but the location of these withdrawn > missiles was never revealed. > > The CIA knew for quite some time that the base of the Russian Baltic > Fleet in Kaliningrad has become a depot of tactical nuclear warheads > withdrawn from Russian warships. The fact that an operational base > for the deployment of short-range missiles existed in Kaliningrad > had also been known for months. Furthermore, last June, American > satellites detected a shipment of short-range missiles. Satellite > pictures, however, could not detect if the missiles had nuclear > warheads. > > What's going on here? > > When the American embassy in Moscow broached the subject indirectly > with the Russians, it was met with flat denials. In fact, American > intelligence "scouts" on the ground in Lithuania (whose territory > the Russian armed forces have to cross in order to reach > Kaliningrad) subsequently confirmed that the shipment included > nuclear weapons. This was also confirmed by Polish intelligence > sources immediately thereafter. The issue was discussed during the > mentioned in public. > > Western governments know that the stationing of these short-range > missiles (with a range of 44 miles/70 km) has no practical military > value. They were originally intended to support a massive Russian > ground offensive in Central Europe, something which is unthinkable > today. Although their presence so near the Baltic states and Poland > may be disturbing, the missiles do not change the strategic > equation: all of Moscow's neighbours already live under threat of > nuclear weapons deep in Russian territory. So, what is the Kremlin > up to? > > The answer is purely political. President Putin knows that very soon > he will need to negotiate with President Bush about America's > proposed National Missile Defence programme. The Russians are > adamantly opposed to it. By stationing missiles in central Europe, > the Kremlin is hoping to have a few more chips for the subsequent > bargain with Washington. > > The Danes will not be pleased > > Once developed, the American programme will need to use bases in > Greenland, a Danish territory. The revelation that Denmark's > participation in America's missile defence programme may result in > the reintroduction of nuclear weapons into the Baltic Sea region (in > Kaliningrad) is designed to inflame Danish public opinion, in the > evident hope that the American plan may be stalled. > > Furthermore, the Russians also know that they will face another > challenge soon: that of Nato's enlargement. Nato is committed to > discussing this process in Prague next year. The Russians want to > stop it, not least because Lithuania is high on the list of possible > new members. > > The presence of new Russian missiles in Kaliningrad will not deter > Nato from debating another enlargement. But it may persuade a > hesitant and politically divided American Senate that another > enlargement is unwise, and may scare other Europeans into persuading > Washington to abandon enlargement. > > Call their bluff > > What will the West do? Call Russia's bluff. Poland's foreign > minister, Wladyslaw Bartoszewski, claimed to "feel no anxiety" about > what is going on in Kaliningrad. The West is also proposing to use > the mechanism of military inspections in order to persuade Russia to > withdraw its nuclear arsenal: in line with two treaties - on the > reduction, of conventional forces (CFE) and "open skies" - the West > and Russia are entitled to carry out such mutual inspections. > Otherwise, Western governments will continue to pretend that nothing > has happened. > > Why did the CIA leak the story? By revealing that the Russian move > took place before President Bush took office, the Americans > for a worsening in East-West relations. -- Konrad M. �epecki + + + + + + + + + + + + http://members.tripod.com/~tytus/Welcome.html =============================================================== Lista 'Forum Zagraniczne' Administrator: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archiwum: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]
