https://bugs.freebsd.org/bugzilla/show_bug.cgi?id=291344

--- Comment #11 from [email protected] ---
I would expect freebsd-update to be sufficiently aware of the current system
state to at least refuse such an upgrade, or issue a clear warning, unless the
user explicitly forces it.

As I understand it, freebsd-update already inspects the local installation
state and compares it with the repository metadata. Given that, it seems
feasible to detect an unsupported or unsafe upgrade path and provide a warning
or guidance about the correct upgrade procedure (e.g. via 14-STABLE first).

Even within a relatively small user community, there have already been at least
three independent reports of this issue with 15.0.

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