On 8/2/06, Alex Zbyslaw <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Atom Powers wrote:

> It's still going to take you at least a release to get it into the
> base install. But if you can find a way to use the portsnap data and
> get useful information out of the cvsup data you can probably get
> numbers now with an error margin as low as 8% to 15%.

Hey, I said that a week ago!  Guess I agree with you :-)

Not quite convinced by the error margin, but as long as you count too
low then I see no problem.  If, as Nikolas pointed out, a URL-based
reporting scheme can be bombarded with fakes, as a vendor I would not
want to listen to any numbers it produced.

But the question then goes back to: can you make any kind of count out
of cvsup servers?  Someone already said they thought you couldn't.

At the end of the day, I think that unique IP address is as close as
it's possible to get to host count.  It will undercount NATed hosts and
networks with single cvsup/portsnap distribution points, and will
overcount variable IP addresses.  The latter, I think matters the least
as long as you do your stats over a short enough period (e.g. 1 month).
That wouldn't overcount much and deliberate faking would be hard and
limited (how many IP addresses can one faker get access to?).

Then, as long as the methodology is clearly explained along with any
stats, you'd have the ammunition to persuade vendors (we hope).


The problem with cvsup (I use cvsup.) is the error margin. The closer
we get to release dates the more I use cvsup, It's a side effect of
running -STABLE. anyways... back to the fakers...

Lets think about the usage patterns of a "typical" faker vs NAT:

* All from one IP address.
* Sequential requests.
* Scripted, so each request should be timed perfectly with the one
before and the one after it.
* Thousands of requests.

NATed Boxes:
* All from one IP address.
* Parallel requests.
* Not scripted, requests should be more random.
* Hundreds of requests?

Also I seem to remember a way to detect NATed boxes:

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