Phil--That's an embarrassingly (for me) clear summary of what we jargoned up and called "trend theory" on an NIH grant. After too many years in the drug field, I wanted to explain how and why illicit drug epidemics kept happening. So we looked back in history for when "quickening" happened, for us the explosion of an epidemic incidence curve, heroin in the 60s and 90s, crack in the 80s, X in the 90s, methamphetamine in the 80s, etc. Then we looked around at what was going on at about the same time in three areas, historical conditions of the population who were the faces behind the numbers, changes in drug production systems, and changes in distribution networks. Quickening there too. Turns out when you get dramatic and unexpected changes in those distant systems at about the same time, and if they link up into positive feedback loops, you get the curve and a hell of a lot more. More to it in terms of fitting the theory to the many different instances, but on the whole it worked to tell you where to look to prevent at some particular moment, except most of what needed intervention wasn't an individual, so the concept didn't fly well in a medically dominated institute.
Mike On Jun 13, 2006, at 8:59 PM, Phil Henshaw wrote: > The hardest thing about imagining how growth works is that it demands > that you comprehend a whole complex system at once. Of course you > inevitably have to guess about the edges and plug in some stock images > where your observations or brain power are lacking, because the > feat is > always just a little too much to handle. Pick something interesting > you're very familiar with at first. The behavior of your kids, or > your > crops, or your business successes or failures, the moods of your > friends > or enemies, how ideas percolate in the lab, the last great or horrid > party you threw, etc. Where you see exponential quickening (when > innocent beginnings suddenly take off, or fall completely flat, etc.) > try to document *everything* connected that was happening. Find the > flow & the inflection points. > > > Phil Henshaw ¸¸¸¸.·´ ¯ `·.¸¸¸¸ > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > 680 Ft. Washington Ave > NY NY 10040 > tel: 212-795-4844 > e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > explorations: www.synapse9.com > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
