I have been amazed to see how the most valuable things in the world are
increasingly virtual. Bill Gates is the richest man in the world producing
bits and bytes. As our economy expands, the world of possible things to do
grows vast.
The physical constraints, like oil supplies or environmental degradation,
could be reflected in prices. The market mechanism will then steer around
them. Human population, for example is now expected to peak at 8 billion
and then start declining. The world as a whole is having fewer babies than
replacement (but the supply of young mothers is still bulging from earlier
population growth). As I understand it (from hearing Ben Wattenberg talk
about his book "Fewer"), only Africa is still at more than replacement
fertility.
I read recently that it is cities that drive this process. In the country,
children are a profit center. In the city, where most humans now live, they
are costly. So people aren't having as many. At $80/barrel, people get
serious about replacing oil. With a Carbon tax to reflect their
environmental impact, all fossil fuels will start being replaced.
Can the economy grow infinitely? I don't see how it matters. Infinity is
never really part of it. Our economy will always be finite. The real
question, as I see it is can we keep adapting, or will we get rigid at some
point and refuse to allow industries and businesses to die when they become
maladaptive? Is it not possible, with a finite population, to go on
indefinitely exploring the ever multiplying space of possible creative
expressions? The space of what's possible to do seems to be growing faster
than the economy.
-Mike Oliker
Phil Henshaw Wrote:
"One thing seems sure is that the world's obsession with multiplying
wealth, power and the complexity of our lives will stop being fun
and
loose credibility, the same way any 'unstoppable' force built on
contradictions does. There's nothing more perfectly certain to be
embarrassed than a plan to achieve infinity after all. The
question is
only how and when. The physics is interesting, and some of the
choices
are better than others."
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