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Marcus G. Daniels wrote:
> One concern I have about the use of agent models is that it can easily 
> amount to "let's make an accusation and see if it sticks" where sticking 
> is often poorly defined in the wrong hands.    If a model's results can 
> be interpreted in a lot of ways, and decision makers have an affinity 
> for a certain one (e.g. a political or ideological motive), then it just 
> becomes a tool for rationalizing actions.    Writing simulations is 
> largely programming and programming tends to be a goal oriented thing..

But the ethical issues that result from such are exactly the same as
those for any reasoning system, including those of ancient China and
Greece.  So, there's nothing new about using rhetoric to foist one's
opinion on the world.  Modeling (not simulation*) is a form of rhetoric,
which carries the ethical problems you bring up.

The idea that models are somehow more dangerous than, say, persuasive
writing, is wrong, though.  One might argue that the occult mechanisms
hidden inside an implemented model are more nefarious than the rather
hollow feel of a NYT editorial.  After all, humans are attracted to
pretty blinking dots.  But, ultimately, only the skeptics will challenge
either.  A non-skeptic will just as readily cite a yammer-head at the
NYT as they would a complicated model.  And, overall, the world has very
few skeptics.  Hence, models are square equivalents to op-ed articles
and there are no new ethical issues there.



(*) Simulations are concrete objects and, hence, are fundamentally
distinct from programs and full models, which are forms of rhetoric.  A
simulation is not a model in and of itself.  A model may _contain_ (use
or consist of) a simulation; but a model must be more than just a
simulation.  Hence simulations do NOT necessarily have the same ethical
consequences as rhetoric.  But, programs and whole models do have the
same ethical consequences as rhetoric.  The ethical consequences of
simulation is the same as that of any other concrete tool like hammers,
engines, and bombs.
- --
glen e. p. ropella, 971-219-3846, http://tempusdictum.com
Think not those faithful who praise all thy words and actions; but those
who kindly reprove thy faults. -- Socrates

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