Hi Nicholas,

> Thanks for these comments.  Are you actually a person who could make me
> understand Bayes intuitively, a little bit?

Work through this:
http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html

I did that a couple of years ago and now I don't know how I could ever 
_not_ have understood Bayes intuitively.

No kidding - Eliezer's tutorial is great (play around with the slides).

Of course, this does not mean that the problem of the priors has been 
solved ;-))

Regards,
Günther

-- 
Günther Greindl
Department of Philosophy of Science
University of Vienna
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.univie.ac.at/Wissenschaftstheorie/

Blog: http://dao.complexitystudies.org/
Site: http://www.complexitystudies.org

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