[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> That's closer I think.  There's little point to agility for a little
> fish after it has been swallowed.  All that helps then is making
> excuses... briefly.  Agility only helps if you sense the
> 'disturbance' and avoid the attack entirely.  Derivatives are long
> range indicators of out of model events approaching.

No, there's much point to agility even if the little fish is
_eventually_ swallowed.  Agility allows the little fish to avoid being
swallowed for a longer time than her clumsy siblings.  More time means
more chances to mate, which is the whole point of the exercise.

As for sensing the disturbance, agility helps no matter _when_ you sense
the disturbance.  (You _always_ sense the disturbance, even if it's only
after the teeth sink into your flesh.)  The point of being agile is to
allow you a larger window and more options between the time of sensing
the disturbance and your subsequent action.

The larger point is that the best methods for handling potentially
catastrophic change derive from a tight feedback loop with one's
environment.  Abstraction is the enemy.  Embeddedness and high
interactivity are key.  Agility is an ability that comes from being
deeply embedded in the context.

It's true that abstraction allows one to estimate long-range patterns
and long-term trends.  But commitment to those abstract patterns and
trends does NOT help one survive potentially catastrophic change.  It
can only help one avoid such change.  And when the change is waaaay too
big to avoid?  Well, then agility is the key.

-- 
glen e. p. ropella, 971-219-3846, http://tempusdictum.com
There is nothing as permanent as a temporary government program. --
Milton Friedman


============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Reply via email to