Great questions
!
1) As a complex systems naturalist Ive found a number of
particular kinds of constant relationships that are unusually strong
predictors of change. Growth is one, whole system diminishing returns is
another. Im trying to help people watch their world at ITs work.
I had two ways in mind. The diagram points to the main categories
of resources for growth, the means by which their investments are connected,
and by that how the system balances its strains in relation to the
discovered profitability of the earth. The reason the system behaves as a
whole is important for understanding both how increasing resource uses run
into natural limits at the same time, and why no one notices. It also
shows why those connections get disconnected.
2) When the stock market is collapsing its like a house
burning down. Theres a cascade process. That gives you an indicator
connecting its particular parts. Connecting the parts lets you better
see how it all works and ask how and when it began. When the banks and
others began learning they had made bad bets they tried to sell their bad
bets to someone else. A lot of people noticed the rush to the door and
that precipitated the collapse of trust.
Where that began was with both the process that built the false
expectations in the first place and the process of small local failures of
expectation precipitating the collapse. The whole event involves
understanding both the pump that inflated the bubble (which nearly everyone
celebrated at the time) and the sudden appearance of the wide variety of
pin pricks of failed expectations all over that directly precipitated it.
So far I seem to be the only person whos noticed that the inflation of the
bubble was certain to create points of failure that could not be responded
to, and so be the first and final cause its own collapse.
One thing you see at the moment is that central banks providing a safe
haven for money are themselves causing a major movement of investment to the
central banks and disinvestment in the physical economy. That is actively
dismantling the physical economy, the core problem causing the market to
slide. This whole scenario of events is actually a natural direct
consequence of our standard practice of planning on continuous growth from
naturally diminishing assets, one of those seemingly unchanging general
conditions that foretell enormous change.
Does that help?
Phil Henshaw
From: Douglas Roberts [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, October 28, 2008 3:09 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] how diminishing returns triggers investor flight &
collapse
Ok, I'll bite.
How does yet another "everything is connected to everything" diagram help
anything?
While we're on he subject, does that paragraph to the left of the
Everything-Everything diagram say anything more prosaic than, "People invest
to make money, and when the stock market is melting down people aren't
making money on their investments"?
--
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
On Tue, Oct 28, 2008 at 12:59 PM, Phil Henshaw <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Thought this diagram might help.
http://www.synapse9.com/issues/ResourceNet.pdf
How markets equalize investment returns for physical resources throughout a
whole system also accelerates the "flight to safety" and collapse of the
whole system too, when physical returns (ROI's) are diminishing below the
financial expectations guaranteed by central banks... :-(
Best,
Phil Henshaw
¸¸¸¸.·´ ¯ `·.¸¸¸¸
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212-795-4844 680 Ft.Washington Ave NY NY 10040 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"it's not finding what people say interesting, but finding the interest in
what they say"
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============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
