Yes, sure, try finding a buyer for the whole pack of ideas built around modeling the future is a projection from of the past.
Notice that the exact point I sold things was when I was disturbed by the unusually high rate of price increase being unsustainable. I didn't wait for a high rate of price decrease and project that into the future. I was reading the curve with the expectation that the future would be different from the past (having spent decades watching and learning the signals of when and how). The problem with projecting from the past is that the future is actually a diverging processes running into entirely new conditions, and not continuing processes with random perturbations repeating old conditions. So the way to do real forecasting is not juicing up random variables for behaviors that won't be repeated, but watching the divergences that display the new behaviors as they develop. Phil Henshaw From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Robert Holmes Sent: Thursday, November 20, 2008 10:51 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] funny shapes.. Phil - thanks for your timely suggestion that I should sell my Monsanto stock a year ago. Do you have any recommendations for what I should sell last week? -- Robert On Thu, Nov 20, 2008 at 6:40 PM, Phil Henshaw <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: 5yr Dow & Monsanto today www.synapse9.com/issues/images/Dow5yr11.08.jpg www.synapse9.com/issues/images/Monsanto5yr11.08a.jpg Phil ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
