Nick -- I'm wondering: would it be a good idea for you to give a talk
at the Complex on the paper? As much as we discussed it, I found
myself a bit confused about the explanation vs prediction debate.
Partly it has to do with the difference with simulation (like TranSim)
modeling and smaller scale, concept modeling (like Prisoner's Dilemma).
Partly it has to do with the explanation vs prediction difference. PD
can explain the evolution of cooperation. TS can predict traffic
patterns.
Finally, it may have to do with the stochastic nature of modeling, and
if our set-theoretic reduction of Steve's thermodynamic interpretation
of models works, we may get to something solid enough for me to admit
to prediction.
-- Owen
On Jan 31, 2009, at 2:21 PM, Nicholas Thompson wrote:
Jim,
Actually, I wasnt entirely clear what the controversy was and was more
concerned by how a Great Man like Epstein might be used as the
authority
for unbearable round of obscurantist blather about how one could have
"understanding" without being able to generate any reasonable
expectations
about the state of the world. Think about it: a phalanx of
post-modernists led by Joshua Epstein. If you think I am being
paranoid,
you only have to remember what silly hay was made of Kuhn's
philosophy of
science or, for that matter, einstein's relativity.
Anyway: have a look at Epstein's original article and see if it
doesnt
inspire similar worries in you. Note that he has written a much
longer
work on "generative" science, as if all science were not
generative. I get
the impression he keeps meeting idiots at cocktail parties, and
thinks of
these idiots as representative of the way the sane world think of the
relation between agent based modeling and other forms of scientific
thinking. Agent based modeling is no more subject to the fallacies of
induction or the fallacy of affirming the consequent than any other
form of
modeling.
Take care,
Nick
Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology,
Clark University ([email protected])
[Original Message]
From: Jim Gattiker <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Date: 1/31/2009 12:19:11 PM
Subject: Fwd: [FRIAM] Latest issue of JASSS appears to contain a
nugget
And lets not overlook the brewing dogfight on prediction:
- Contra Epstein, Good Explanations Predict (our own Nick Thompson)
- Not All Explanations Predict Satisfactorily, and Not All Good
Predictions Explain
What's the controversy?
On the first, I suppose one could drum something up over unstated
definitions of "good". After all, if we can't argue over semantics,
what can we argue over?
I can't construe anything difficult about the second one at all.
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Owen Densmore <[email protected]>
Date: Sat, Jan 31, 2009 at 10:15 AM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Latest issue of JASSS appears to contain a
nugget
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]
>
And lets not overlook the brewing dogfight on prediction:
- Contra Epstein, Good Explanations Predict (our own Nick Thompson)
- Not All Explanations Predict Satisfactorily, and Not All Good
Predictions Explain
Also..cast your vote for pdf vs html for paper formats!
Great stuff.
-- Owen
On Jan 31, 2009, at 8:45 AM, Robert Holmes wrote:
Amongst the usual plethora of validation-by-kinda-looks-like
papers in
this
month's JASSS is a paper that looks like it might be useful:
*"**Techniques
to Understand Computer Simulations: Markov Chain Analysis"*
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/1/6.html. The paper includes the
source
code for the 10 "classic" ABMs that they consider.
Robert
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FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
