Hmmm! Why would there only be one strain circulating at a time? Arent
mutations occuring all the time? Perhaps I misunderstand the word "strain".
Perhaps I mean "variant"?
Are you familliar with Ewald's book? A bit long in the tooth by now, perhaps,
but still. Is it possible that I have misrepresented his argument?
Nick
Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology,
Clark University ([email protected])
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
----- Original Message -----
From: Douglas Roberts
To: [email protected];The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group
Sent: 4/27/2009 8:51:09 PM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Swine flu
Nick,
No, most likely not. A person is infected with the one strain that is
currently circulating throughout the population.. In other words, there is only
on strain likely to be circulating at a time.
Over time other strains might evolve, but you are right: this is not a time to
suck it up and go to work when you feel shitty.
Maybe I'll sleep in tomorrow...
--Doug
On Mon, Apr 27, 2009 at 8:38 PM, Nicholas Thompson <[email protected]>
wrote:
Doug,
Isn't there another reason to do everything in our power to slow the spread of
the disease? Within each patient is going on a desperate war between more
virulent and less virulent strains of the virus. More virulent strains
reproduce faster, shed more stuff in the early stages of the disease and kill
the patient quick; less virulent strains reproduce more slowly, shed less stuff
in the early stages, but allow the patient to get around more to spread the
disease. Slowing the spread of the disease, particularly in the early stages,
handicaps the more virulent strains in this competition. One of the reasons
the 1918 epidemic was so bad is that all those young recruits were packed
together under lousy living conditions so transmission was practically
instantaneous and the more virulent strains were rewarded. This is NOT a time
to suck it up and go to work when you feel shitty.
My authority here is Paul Ewald, The Evolution of Infectious Diseases, who
argues, for instance, the use of mosquito nettings reduces the virulence of
malaria infections.
Is this correct?
Nick
Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology,
Clark University ([email protected])
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
----- Original Message -----
From: Douglas Roberts
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Sent: 4/27/2009 7:11:12 PM
Subject: [FRIAM] Swine flu
A brief lay-level article I wrote for the SFR, at the request of one of their
reporters:
http://www.sfreeper.com/2009/04/27/swine-flu/
--
Doug Roberts
[email protected]
[email protected]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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--
Doug Roberts
[email protected]
[email protected]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
