Interesting. I think I know what V&V and simulations are, and I might even buy into MA (morphological analysis), but what is HSBC? Is it
*HSBC Program* To Help Rare Dolphin In Yangtze River - ChinaCSR.com *...*<http://www.chinacsr.com/en/2007/09/04/1655-hsbc-program-to-help-rare-dolphin-in-yangtze-river/> or *HSBC* Aren <http://www.hsbcarena.com/> Buffalo, New York. Home of the NHL Buffalo Sabers. or *Hobe Sound Bible College*<http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=13&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hsbc.edu%2F&ei=e7g1SsaMH5HstAPuk9XyCg&usg=AFQjCNGv02MnhgnrUnE4mkomSTtiV_2Eyw&sig2=4v5LRwLY8dMa--8pjexe-w>or *HSBC* Mortgage Services - Home <http://www.hsbcmortgageservices.com/> (I abhor undefined acronyms.) --Doug On Sun, Jun 14, 2009 at 8:11 PM, Stephen Guerin <[email protected]>wrote: > Two potential projects are brewing at sfComplex around validation and > verification in complexity models and "order of battle". Please come and > listen to Bill Reynolds and Marta Weber describe their upcoming applied > complexity project. > > SPEAKERS: > Bill Reynolds - Least Squares Software > Marta Weber - Applied Behavioral Sciences > > TIME: Mon June 15 1:30p Santa Fe Complex Commons > 632 Agua Fria Street > > ABSTRACT > We give a (patent pending) approach for supporting validation and > verification (V&V) for complex modeling and simulation. We present a means > of characterizing methods, Breadth-Depth, which encompasses techniques > ranging from simulation to unstructured human judgment. Based on this > framework, we argue that a cost-effective method V&V of HSBC simulations is > triangulation of simulation against breadth methods. We propose a specific > instantiation of this approach, based on morphological analysis (MA). We > propose to develop a software tool to support MA-based breadth-depth > triangulation. We will use the tool to conduct breadth-based V&V for > simulations developed under the HSBC program. We conjecture that this will > lead to superior V&V methodologies for simulations of complex systems. We > further conjecture that the effort will lead to improved insights and > capabilities into the operational use of simulations for complex decision > problems. > > > ABSTRACT > An order of battle (OB) is a simple encoding of information that is > particularly relevant to a military commander. The choice of information > used in an OB captures centuries (or even millennia) of expertise in the > military arts. The idea of a Cultural Order of Battle (COB) is to provide an > operationally useful capture of expertise from the social sciences. Facts > that are obvious to anthropologists, psychologists or economists can be > manifestly non-obvious to commanders, planners and analysts. The COB strives > to capture these facts in transparent, easy-to-use and disseminate method > modules that focus on specific areas of the social sciences. Each module > will be modest – trying to do one thing well, albeit something that is not > in the operational lexicon of military experts. Sophistication and > complexity arise through the combination of modules, a practice we call > multimethod analysis. Our approach considers various problems simultaneously > through many disciplinary lenses. > > The COB consists of three prototype methods: a tool, from anthropology, for > understanding cultural segmentation - splits and bonds between groups based > on identity; a tool, from psychology, for assessing utility of decisions > using prospect theory; and an approach, from economics, for enumerating the > institutional networks of non-state actors (NSAs) - structures that can be > formed by cooperating and competing NSAs with different institutional > capabilities (e.g. trade, security, logistics). > > SPEAKER BIOS > WILLIAM NASH REYNOLDS, Ph.D. is the founder, President and Chief Science > Officer of Least Squares Software and has been a principal researcher and > innovator in the field of complexity for more than twenty years. Over the > past eight years, he has focused on the role of complex systems in > intelligence analysis, directing his research toward complexity-based > analytic methodologies, which are of practical value to analysts in the > Intelligence Community. In this capacity, Dr. Reynolds has conducted > numerous intelligence analysis case studies assessing the impact of > technology on efficiency and effectiveness in analytic practice. Dr. > Reynolds holds a Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics from the University of > California at San Diego, and Bachelor’s Degrees in Physics and Comparative > Literature from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. > > Selected Publications & Presentation > 2009. Reynolds, William N. Breadth-Depth for Warning. Invited presentation > at the National Intelligence Council Seminar on the Tradecraft of Warning, > February 20, 2009, Arlington, VA. > 2009. Reynolds, William N. Breadth-Depth: A Quantitative Taxonomy of > Method and Multimethod. In preparation. > 2009. Reynolds, W. N. and Moore, D. T. Advancing the Practice: > Multimethodological Analysis for Intelligence. In preparation. 2006. Moore, > David T. and Reynolds, William N. So Many Ways to Lie: Complexity of Denial > and Deception. Defense Intelligence Journal 15(2):95-116. > > > MARTA S. WEBER, Ph.D. is the founder of Applied Behavioral Sciences and a > psychologist with thirty years of experience in clinical, forensic, and > intelligence practice. Dr. Weber pioneered the use of in-depth remote > psychological profiling and introduced a comprehensive method to > psycholinguistic analysis of speech and text to determine motivations, > intention, and deception techniques in subjects internationally. She is a > recognized expert in the analysis of organizational leadership. In addition > to her Ph.D. in Psychology, she holds advanced degrees in Sociology and the > History of Art. She received specialized training with the Federal Bureau of > Investigation’s Behavioral Sciences Unit. Dr. Weber has provided > consultation and training to U.S. intelligence agencies since 2000; she has > worked with LSS since 2005. > > Selected Publications & Presentations > 2008. Human Capital Assessment in CI. Competitive Intelligence Magazine > 11(6) > 2006. Leveraging Behavioral Sciences for Improved Intelligence Outcomes. > Paper presented to The Intelligence Summit. Arlington, VA. > 2004. Profiling for Leadership Analysis. CI Magazine 7(4). > > > --- -. . ..-. .. ... .... - .-- --- ..-. .. ... .... > [email protected] > (m) 505.577.5828 (o) 505.995.0206 > redfish.com _ sfcomplex.org _ simtable.com _ lava3d.com > > > > > > > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > -- Doug Roberts [email protected] [email protected] 505-455-7333 - Office 505-670-8195 - Cell
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
