It is a bit unfortunate that the experiment involved predicting soccer game outcomes. I recall that there was an octupus the had a perfect prediction record during the last world cup.
davew On Tue, 12 Oct 2010 14:26 -0600, "Robert J. Cordingley" <[email protected]> wrote: This was a well known phenomenon for Knowledge Engineers (when expert systems were more visible in the mid '80s). There were several anecdotes: one was about the best performing pilots that went to Top Gun school and losing their edge because they had to repeatedly verbalize their knowledge to students. The best performance came from 'compiled knowledge' which is intrinsically inexpressible. It's nice to see some research put flesh on anecdotal bones. Thanks Robert C On 10/12/10 1:56 PM, Victoria Hughes wrote: Ran across an interesting article just now on this. Please note I am just adding this to the discussion, not using it as justification one way or the other. I do not have a PhD, have often toyed with getting one (in organizational psych) and have opinions on both sides of the issue. Real-world fact though is that PhDs give credibility and accreditation to outside observers, whatever we may think from closer in. Here- [1]You Know More Than You Know | Wired Science | Wired.com FIrst paragraph: " There’s a fascinating new [2]paper in Psychological Science by the Dutch psychologist [3]Ap Dijksterhuis on the virtues of unconscious thought when it comes to predicting the outcome of soccer matches. It turns out that the conscious brain – that rational voice in your head deliberating over the alternatives – gets in the way of expertise. Although we tend to think of experts as being weighted down by information, their intelligence dependent on a vast set of explicit knowledge, this experiment suggests that successful experts don’t consciously access these facts. When they evaluate a situation, they don’t systematically compare all the available soccer teams or analyze the relevant players. They don’t rely on elaborate spreadsheets or athletic statistics or long lists of pros and cons. Instead, Dijksterhuis’ study suggests that the best experts naturally depend on their unconscious mind, on that subterranean warehouse of feelings, hunches and instincts...." .... ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at [4]http://www.friam.org ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org References 1. http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/10/you-know-more-than-you-know/ 2. http://pss.sagepub.com/content/20/11/1381 3. http://dijksterhuis.socialpsychology.org/ 4. http://www.friam.org/
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