When I read that review it wasn't obvious to me how he got the result that he did for the counterfeit coin example. So I worked it out for myself--and after a bit of thinking about it got the same answer. If you're interested it's here<http://cs.calstatela.edu/wiki/index.php/Bayes%27_theorem#Counterfeit_coin_example>. (Let me know if you think I made any mistakes.) The calculation is at the bottom of the Bayes Theorem page on my wiki.
*-- Russ Abbott* *_____________________________________________* *** Professor, Computer Science* * California State University, Los Angeles* * Google voice: 747-*999-5105 * blog: *http://russabbott.blogspot.com/ vita: http://sites.google.com/site/russabbott/ *_____________________________________________* On Sun, Aug 7, 2011 at 2:41 PM, Tom Johnson <[email protected]> wrote: > A review of a new book that may be of interest. > --tom johnson > > The Mathematics of Changing Your Mind By JOHN ALLEN PAULOS Published: > August 5, 2011 > > Sharon Bertsch McGrayne introduces Bayes’s theorem in her new book with a > remark by John Maynard Keynes: “When the facts change, I change my opinion. > What do you do, sir?” > > Bayes’s theorem, named after the 18th-century Presbyterian minister Thomas > Bayes, addresses this selfsame essential task: How should we modify our > beliefs in the light of additional information? Do we cling to old > assumptions long after they’ve become untenable, or abandon them too readily > at the first whisper of doubt? Bayesian reasoning promises to bring our > views gradually into line with reality and so has become an invaluable tool > for scientists of all sorts and, indeed, for anyone who wants, putting it > grandiloquently, to sync up with the universe. If you are not thinking like > a Bayesian, perhaps you should be. > > > http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/books/review/the-theory-that-would-not-die-by-sharon-bertsch-mcgrayne-book-review.html?_r=1&ref=books > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
