I keep thinking that the next big dictator isn't new. Das Kapital is an artificial life form which by a process of natural selection pursues its own preservation and growth. It doesn't care which individuals or institutions survive or perish in the process, it just moves and grows where the return on investment takes it. It has no ethics, no morality, and no sense of humor.
Daniel Kahneman in http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html mentions analyzing 8 years of investment results for 25 successful investment advisers. Though these were all experienced and confident men, the average year to year correlation in their results was 0.01. The highly rewarded experts of finance have no real idea what they're doing, they are highly rewarded for an "illusion of skill", they play roulette with style and their clients buy them expensive clothes to do it in. The news didn't faze them a bit; that they can do what they do and get rewarded for it is all the affirmation they need. In dealing with Das Kapital, I think we're pretty much all in the same boat. No one knows where the slime mold will choose to extend its pseudopodia, or which of the pseudopodia will thrive or wither, or what the novel beneficial or lamentable consequences will be. Some of us worry about the suffering caused by the gold-goo-excrement, others worry about not killing the beast that makes the gold-goo, many just fight for the largest share they can get, and most of us could care less until the bucket of gold-goo-excrement lands in our neighborhood or the gold-goo pseudopod feeding our investments dries up. --rec -- On Sun, Oct 23, 2011 at 12:09 AM, Robert J. Cordingley < [email protected]> wrote: > Didn't the 2003 documentary The > Corporation<http://www.thecorporation.com/>make the point that corporations > are psychopaths based on some WHO criteria? > Thanks > Robert C > > > On 10/22/11 10:33 PM, Patrick Reilly wrote: > > Sole criterion. (embarrassed laugh) > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > From: Patrick Reilly > Date: Saturday, October 22, 2011 > Subject: [FRIAM] Next Dictator > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> > > > Only psychopaths have the sole criteria of maximizing perceived > self-interest in making decisions. > > > > On Saturday, October 22, 2011, Nicholas Thompson < > [email protected]> wrote: > > The idea that people maximize their individual interests is one of those > crazy ideas that economists have to postulate in order to make their crazy > theories work. In fact, people sometimes maximize their personal interests, > sometimes their family interests, and sometimes, with great ferocity, their > group interests, at the expense both to group and family. I have no general > opinion which of these is better. They all can be terrifying. > > > > > > > > N > > > > > > > > From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On > Behalf Of joseph spinden > > Sent: Saturday, October 22, 2011 3:07 PM > > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Next Dictator > > > > > > > > I think the problem is incentives -- not simply on Wall Street, but in > the broader world as well: In general, people act to maximize their own > individual rewards. As long as the system provides individuals with > opportunities for large rewards with little personal risk, people will act > to maximize their own individual rewards. If they are right, they earn big > rewards. If wrong, others pay. > > > > Joe > > > > > > > > On 10/22/11 9:55 AM, Owen Densmore wrote: > > > > On Sat, Oct 22, 2011 at 9:09 AM, Alfredo Covaleda < > [email protected]> wrote: > > > > After Gadaffi's death a local newspaper wrote : "who is going to be the > next dictator to fall?". Well, my answer is: Wall Street. > > > > -- > > Alfredo > > > > > > > > I certainly agree with the sentiment. And I do believe the core signal > in our noise is the lack of a robust middle class, thus I find very > troubling the divide between the wealthy and the "rest of us" and our > immense struggle just to get by nowadays. > > > > > > > > But I don't think the problem is wall street per se. After all, wall > street funds companies who build things that are useful. > > > > > > > > I think the problems are 1) in the financial sector 2) caused by > too-big-to-fail, including monopolies. > > > > > > > > The financial sector is "different". It makes money by manipulating > money. Sometimes that's fine, for example futures markets help stabilize > the price of components of products we buy. Hedge is not a bad word here. > Even lending is important when it too relates to real things like houses and > companies building products. > > > > > > > > I think the disconnect is when real products and people are abstracted > out of the financial world, when we're building bundles of loans, slicing > and dicing, and nothing real in sight. Or when we are trading in > currencies. > > > > > > > > Big is different too, distorting markets and dangerous if they fail. > > > > > > > > As much as we hate them, regulations are important. But they are very > hard to manage, and with the global economy, they need to be balanced world > wide. And we don't really know which ones will really build the > right incentives. > > > > > > > > We have, however, just learned by experiments gone wrong, that letting > banks also be insurers is a mistake. And that banks and companies are too > large, they distort the economy, and worse, need rescuing when they err. > > > > > > > > So yes, let the financial dictator fail next. Now lets figure out how! > > > > > > > > -- Owen > > > > > > ============================================================ > > > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > -- > > > > > > > > "Sunlight is the best disinfectant." > > > > > > > > -- Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis, 1913. > > -- > The information contained in this transmission may contain privileged and > confidential information. It is intended only for the use of the person(s) > named above. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified > that any review, dissemination, distribution or duplication of this > communication is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, > please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the > original message. To reply to our email administrator directly, please send > an email to [email protected]. > > > > -- > The information contained in this transmission may contain privileged and > confidential information. It is intended only for the use of the person(s) > named above. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified > that any review, dissemination, distribution or duplication of this > communication is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, > please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the > original message. To reply to our email administrator directly, please send > an email to [email protected]. > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > -- > Cirrillian > Web Developmentcirrillian.com505-471-4569 (office)281-989-6272 (cell) > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >
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