Steve, Interesting paper, but I'm not sure if I follow. The basic argument seems to be that we often explain things by imagining (with the help of statistics) hypothetical constructs that cannot be directly measured. As those constructs can't be measured directly, they don't help us predict things. Thus, predictive models are limited to using things that actually exist, while explanatory models are not so limited.
That seems like a really good argument for coming up with better explanations, not an argument for distinguishing and reifying two distinct modeling tasks. This is a topic I am quite interested in. I would presume that an ideal explanatory model would be identical to an ideal predictive model, though I grant that non-ideal cases might differ. What am I missing? Eric On Tue, Jul 10, 2012 12:37 AM, Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: > > > >Bruce - > > > I second the motion (very good post)! > > > Mendeleev's Periodic Chart was *my* first introduction (back when) > to the very concept of having a predictive model that was (almost) > entirely void of explanatory ability (as it stood when > constructed). I found the notion *fascinating* and it drove me > into the field of Visual (Perceptual) Analytics many years > later... seeking patterns that yield useful prediction without > necessarily waiting for an explanatory model. > > > For those vaguely interested in the philosophical underpinnings of > science, it's methods and utility, I recommend Galit Schmueli's > (George Washington U's) paper on Predictive vs Explanatory Models > (as well as *Descriptive* models)... > > arxiv.org/pdf/1101.0891 > > > > > > > > > Thanks! Glad you liked it! > >I have long been bemused by the strong parallels among the various >tales I was able to tell in that post. > >Bruce > >On Mon, Jul 9, 2012 at 4:43 PM, Pamela McCorduck <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="#"><pam...@well.com></a> wrote: > > > Bruce, that blog post is marvelous in its simplicity and power. > >Pamela > > > >On Jul 9, 2012, at 2:39 PM, Bruce Sherwood wrote: > >See my blog: > ><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://matterandinteractions.wordpress.com/2012/07/09/the-higgs-boson-and-prediction-in-science/"; onclick="window.open('http://matterandinteractions.wordpress.com/2012/07/09/the-higgs-boson-and-prediction-in-science/');return false;">http://matterandinteractions.wordpress.com/2012/07/09/the-higgs-boson-and-prediction-in-science/</a> > >Bruce > >On Sun, Jul 8, 2012 at 10:18 PM, Owen Densmore <a >class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="#"><o...@backspaces.net></a> wrote: > >Lets chat about the Higgs discovery, its likely-hood of being correct, and > >the impact it will have going forward .. at the next Friam @ St Johns. > > >Could someone see if Hywel White is available .. or anyone you know who'd > >like to hold forth on the topic! > > > -- Owen > > >============================================================ > >FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > >Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > >lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" >href="http://www.friam.org"; >onclick="window.open('http://www.friam.org');return >false;">http://www.friam.org</a> > > >============================================================ >FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" >href="http://www.friam.org"; >onclick="window.open('http://www.friam.org');return >false;">http://www.friam.org</a> > > > >"Im Deutschen lügt man, wenn man höflich ist." > >"In German, if one is polite, one lies." > >Goethe, "Faust" > > >============================================================ >FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" >href="http://www.friam.org"; >onclick="window.open('http://www.friam.org');return >false;">http://www.friam.org</a> > > > ============================================================ >FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" >href="http://www.friam.org"; >onclick="window.open('http://www.friam.org');return >false;">http://www.friam.org</a> > > > > > > ============================================================ >FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > Eric Charles Professional Student and Assistant Professor of Psychology Penn State University Altoona, PA 16601
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