Hmm, Nate Silver's trend lines for senate control reversed on August 19, the day that Todd Akin made his "legitimate rape" remarks. On that day the Republicans had a 61.5% chance of winning a senate majority and it's been all down hill for them since then. The odds were 50% a week later. By the 17th of September Silver gave the Democrats a 70.1% chance of winning the senate. So maybe the punters on the Iowa market were just waking up late.
I wonder what sort of "teachable moment" will arise when Nate Silver correctly calls 49 or 48 states in this election. Will the Republicans grudgingly become believers in statistical meta-analysis? Or will they try to pass legislation outlawing it? -- rec -- On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 10:59 PM, Roger Critchlow <[email protected]> wrote: > Found an answer to my question: Mitt's 47% deadbeats secret video is > datelined Sept 17 on Mother Jones. > > The price of RH_DS was 0.244 on the 17th, and 0.724 on the 28th. > The price of RH_RS was 0.450 on the 17th, and 0.065 on the 28th. > > That's a pretty astonishing reversal in Senate expectations from a > Presidential candidate event. > > -- rec -- > > > On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 3:16 PM, Roger Critchlow <[email protected]> wrote: > >> The market for congressional control is going strongly toward >> RepublicanHouseDemocraticSenate (RH_DS). >> >> >> >> Anyone remember what happened in mid-September? >> >> -- rec -- >> >> >
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