Nice piece!
*-- Russ Abbott* *_____________________________________________* *** Professor, Computer Science* * California State University, Los Angeles* * My paper on how the Fed can fix the economy: ssrn.com/abstract=1977688* * Google voice: 747-*999-5105 Google+: plus.google.com/114865618166480775623/ * vita: *sites.google.com/site/russabbott/ CS Wiki <http://cs.calstatela.edu/wiki/> and the courses I teach *_____________________________________________* On Sun, Jan 6, 2013 at 11:45 AM, Owen Densmore <[email protected]> wrote: > A slightly abridged version of this opinion piece appeared in Sunday's New > Mexican: > > http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/02/the_coming_year_in_review?page=full > > I love it: you don't need to guess, here's the news you'll be reading at > years end. > > It has an awkward login, so here it is: > > -- Owen > > > > The Coming Year in > Review<http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/02/the_coming_year_in_review> > The > headlines we'll be reading in 2013. > BY DAVID ROTHKOPF <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/author/DavidRothkopf> | > JANUARY > 2, 2013 > > As that great geopolitical theorist Carly Simon once observed, "We can > never know about the days to come but we think about them anyway, yay." > She then went on to say, as ketchup lovers everywhere remember, > "Anticipation, anticipation, is making me late...is keepin' me waitin'." > COMMENTS (7)SHARE: > Share on > twitterTwitter<http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/02/the_coming_year_in_review?page=full#> > > Share on > redditReddit<http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=250&winname=addthis&pub=fpstaff&source=tbx-250&lng=en-US&s=reddit&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foreignpolicy.com%2Farticles%2F2013%2F01%2F02%2Fthe_coming_year_in_review&title=The%20Coming%20Year%20in%20Review%20-%20By%20David%20Rothkopf%20%7C%20Foreign%20Policy&ate=AT-fpstaff/-/-/50e9d310de7ff03b/2&frommenu=1&uid=50e9d310a4f48913&ct=1&pre=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foreignpolicy.com%2Farticles%2F2013%2F01%2F02%2Fthe_coming_year_in_review&tt=0&captcha_provider=nucaptcha> > > [image: Bookmark and Share]More...<http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=20> > > Of course, the tortures of anticipation are well known to observers of the > slow-motion train wreck that has been Washington's management of America's > financial situation, or the recent, interminable U.S. presidential > campaign, or the hideously slow path to oblivion followed by the Assad > regime in Syria, or the painfully circular Eurofollies, not to mention the > gradual but undeniable degradation of the planet's environment that goes on > year in and year out despite our clear knowledge about how to avoid the > damage. > > The time has come to say "enough." We live in an age in which the average > consumer expects instant gratification. There is no reason those who are > interested in the bigger issues taking place in the world shouldn't have it > too. For that reason, we bring to you the top headlines that you will be > looking back at when 2013 draws to a close 12 months from now. Think of it > as the year in review, before it happens. Yay: ** > > *America Recovers* > > Forget the fiscal cliff or the debt ceiling. Admittedly, that may seem > difficult given the headlines of the moment. The clown show in Washington > is diverting for inside the Beltway reporters and creates a kind of > artificial drama that makes one periodically wonder if Kris Jenner were > actually speaker of the House. But see the economy through the eyes of the > market. Washington dithers but hops to when it gets slapped around enough > by traders. Meanwhile, there are winds at America's back: An energy boom. > Housing markets recovering. Signs of resurgent growth in key sectors. Other > big markets a little soft and international investors looking to the United > States as a secure place where the real protection of intellectual property > can spur innovation. Growth in Canada and Mexico. Insourcing as a real > trend bringing jobs back to the United States. That's why smart market > observers like Laszlo Birinyi, who were early to call the current bull > market, expect record stock market highs in 2013. In his view, people are > ready for the slump to be over and the prospect of a bull market will be > irresistible. > > This has its downsides, in particular the concern that too much growth > will make Washington sloppy again, counting on a rebounding economy to make > up for its spending sins. But Washington has done us all a favor by > becoming so feckless and irrelevant that no one is counting on the U.S. > government to lead America out of the boom. Which will leave growth in the > hands of people and companies who understand it. Which for Barack Obama, > John Boehner & Co. ought to have them remembering that old lyric from > "Pippin": "it's smarter to be lucky than it's lucky to be smart."** > > *China (and Some of the Rest of the World) Recovers* > > American growth will help even if it is modest. But the United States can > no longer be the world's locomotive as it once was. It needs help. China > hands I have spoken to think 8-9 percent (or even slightly higher) growth > in 2013 is likely. This would be a return to roughly 2011 growth levels > after a 2012 slump that started to reverse during the second half of 2012. > Europe experts think the worst of the crisis may be behind them. Some > emerging markets (see below) may show signs of real life even as others > (Brazil, Argentina, India) continue to struggle for a while. The net net: > 2013 will be the year that the five-year slump associated with the Great > Recession really comes to an end, even if many don't feel the benefits for > some time to come. > > *Assad Collapses, Syria Festers, and the Mideast Trembles* > > Bashar al-Assad is toast. The Syrian leader's Iranian and Russian > supporters are already desperately in Plan B mode. His local backers are > shifting their last assets out of the country and heading for the hills. > The problem is that with his downfall will come a period of transition to a > new regime that may introduce a new term to the geopolitical lexicon: "the > fog of peace." As many members of the very uncohesive opposition are bad > guys, troublemakers, or potential Assads as there are any who seek a more > democratic or at least vaguely civilized future for the revolution-torn > country. Instability in Syria means problems for its neighbors, including > Jordan (where refugees add to growing threats to King Abdullah and his > family's long reign in that country), Turkey, Israel, Iraq, and Lebanon. > Perhaps most affected will be the latter two as Iran shifts its regional > hegemony chips onto those spaces. As for Iraq, the year should see more > stirrings of trouble in the country the United States invaded a decade ago > and about which George W. Bush once declared "mission accomplished." In > fact, Obama and incoming Secretary of State John Kerry will find they spend > much of the next four years trying to avoid having it look like both big > American wars in the region actually resulted in on-the-ground realities > that were the same or worse as the ones we found prior to going into those > combat zones. Iran's doubling its bets on Hezbollah also, of course, will > have implications for its other client in the neighborhood, Hamas, making > Israel-Palestine peace talks harder. And, of course, the embarrassment of > backing Assad won't look good for the regime in Tehran at home - especially > at a time when economic sanctions are really taking a toll. That'll make > them more nervous and less predictable. (See below for the upside.)** > > *Bibi Netanyahu Irritates the World* > > A key to good prognosticating is always to throw in a few sure things. > Predicting Bibi Netanyahu will irritate the world is like predicting that > the U.S. Congress will fail to come to grips with America's deficit problem > or that Lindsay Lohan will get in trouble with the law. We've seen this > movie before. We don't like it but when in doubt, the universe repeats > itself. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer, success breeds success, > tomorrow's weather has an 85 percent likelihood of being the same as > today's, and the Israeli prime minister is-no doubt with the best of > intentions-a dependable pain in the world's tush. > > *No War with Iran* > > Iran has problems (see above). Sanctions will make them worse. They want > time. Nobody wants a war. Iran will test the world's patience, push it to > the brink, then "settle"...buying time until the next revelation it is not > playing by the rules and the next cycle of brinksmanship. In the end, this > approach is more than likely to ensure they will become "nuclear capable" > and trigger a new arms race in the region and among emerging powers > everywhere. But that won't happen in 2013. And that will pass as successful > diplomacy -- until it turns out to have extraordinarily high hidden costs. > > *Meet the New Bosses, Same as the Old Bosses* > > In addition to Assad, 2013 will see the departure of Hugo Chavez and > Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In Syria, the fall of Assad will produce a power > struggle and in the world's desire to produce stability, it is likely to > bet on anyone tough enough to hold the place together. Which is likely to > be a not very good guy. In Venezuela, the death of Chavez after his long > battle with cancer will produce a successor regime that is increasingly > weaker but attempts for the near term to ride sympathy for the departed > Bolivarian bully. In Iran, President Ahmadinejad was never in charge in > the first place so while the guy who takes over the presidency may change, > the power remains with the Ayatollah-in-Chief as it has since the > revolution. In short, we won't miss these bad guys when they go, but we're > likely to get new ones and new problems in their place, at least in the > short term. In fact, with the Middle East a creeping mess and with > developed countries focusing on bigger problems at home, we are in a period > that may, like the 1960s, see the world's major powers inclined to buy into > a new era of strongmen who will keep a lid on their countries even if a few > basic human rights have to get violated along the way. (Don't worry, > though, we'll have elections so that the 21st century bastards smell > nicer than the ones we had back when colonialism was in its death throes.) > ** > > *America Enacts Immigration and Gun Reforms* > > The U.S. Congress is dysfunctional-but it is not stupid. Ok, maybe it is > stupid, too. But it is nothing if not self-interested. Some progress on > some legislation will be made. Expect passage of bills on assault weapons > and some ammo bans possibly even before we even get to the next round of > fiscal brinksmanship. Expect movement on immigration reform, which has > supporters in both parties and should be easier in an economy trending > upward. On everything else, expect the usual collective exercise in goat > husbandry. > > *Gold Bubble Bursts* > > It has to happen sooner or later. Strengthening economies will soon lead > to strengthening currencies. Or at least less aggressive U.S., Chinese, and > European efforts to devalue their currencies. And when that happens people > will start to realize that even golden trees don't grow to the sky. In the > United States, where buying gold has taken on a political tinge as some on > the hard right and Paulistas buy gold as a way of expressing their hatred > for the Fed, the central government, and modernity, the gold crash will hit > one political side harder than the other. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch > of economic troglodytes. > > *Mexico and Indonesia are the "Next BRICs" Everyone Is Talking About* > > Mexico will be the Brazil of 2013. (I know this because it was already the > Brazil of 2012.) New regime. Finally likely to get to some Pemex* *reforms. > Fourth-largest shale gas reserves in the world. Benefits as manufacturing > facilities move from difficult-to-work-in China and back closer to the > United States. As for Indonesia, this is the big country that emerging > markets investors are starting think is showing renewed signs of life after > a prolonged (15-year) struggle. Lots of people. Lots of energy. Low priced > manufacturing. Close to big markets. And now, gradually, the government is > starting to get its act together, somewhat. (Indonesia is still a state > with strong anti-central government tendencies, which can work for many > investors. Corruption does remain a problem, however.) > > *China Strains Against the Limitations of Its System* > > Look at China's recent hamfisted effort punish the *New York Times* for > publishing the truth about corruption among its elites. Some see in China's > recent moves efforts to echo U.S. "hard power" with expansion of its Navy > and investments in next-generation forms of warfare from space to cyber to > unmanned drones, and U.S. "soft power" through the use of their checkbook > and the influence it buys. But most telling is what might be called their > use of "brittle power": Denying visas, cracking down on Internet freedoms, > squabbling with the Japanese over deserted rocks all fall into this > category. At first glance the power may seem hard enough but it is > actually a sign of weakness, not strength, and it can crack and crumble > away quickly, revealing the real structural problems the new leadership is > going to have to find better ways of tackling. > > *** > > The year* *2013 will also see big stories that are easy to predict but > hard to fill in the details-more climate-driven disasters, more scandals in > financial markets and among emerging markets elites. And it will see > stories more important than all those above that don't get enough ink. > Climate change is one of these of course. > > *And Then, There Is the Greatest Social Failure of Our Era...* > > The larger looming story that troubles me even more is our continuing > failure to protect women or their rights. The U.S. in particular is going > to face some very difficult choices in the year(s) ahead on this point. Are > we so eager for closure in Afghanistan or stability elsewhere that we are > complicit with putting in power regimes that will continue to suppress the > majority population, deny them education, deny them protection under the > law, allow them to be abused under the protection of barbarous and > indefensible "cultural traditions?" Will countries like India continue > their tradition of failing to enforce the law against rapists who prey on > their women, as in the case of December's horrifying Delhi gang rape? Will > the gunmen who targeted Malala in Pakistan continue to seek to intimidate > those who emulate the courageous schoolgirl? Will women continue to be > under-represented economically and politically in almost every country in > the world? My fear is that the answer will be "yes" and that in the year > ahead we will see even the world's most progressive and enlightened powers > continue to feed the greatest global social failure of our age, by looking > away and accepting the unacceptable. > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >
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