That's very enlightining. On Tue, Jul 2, 2013 at 6:23 PM, Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote:
> Gil - > > This is an interesting and timely but potentially contentious topic. > Interesting and timely because we ARE right in the midst of some big fires > (recently)... I just drove through the Jemez to see some of the most recent > fire's (Thompson Ridge) damage as well as from two years ago. Of course, > the recent loss of 19 firefighters in AZ was is not a small reminder of the > danger of these fires. > > My father worked for the US Forest Service from the 50's through the > 80s, and summer was a continuous series of either local fires being fought > nearby or him making long trips off to the really big fires in the pacific > northwest where he often lead crews from Zuni (they were well known for > their skill, tirelessness and cohesiveness). One of my earliest memories > is of my mother driving us out to where they were trying to stop a fire > from crossing the highway near the forest camp we lived in. We and some > other local residents watched (safely) from a few hundred yards back in a > large meadow as flames licked from the ponderosas on one side of the > highway right of way toward the other side. As I remember it, they did > hold the fire there, but only barely. This was the first of nearly 20 > years of fire-stories I got to hear as they were unfolding. We had a > fire-radio in the kitchen which was on 24/7 and busy throughout the > summer. > > My father died less than a year ago and while helping my mother sort > through possessions I encountered an outline of the many harrowing > experiences he had in the forest service, starting with the famous Mann > Gulch fire in Montana that took the lives of 13 fire fighters. My Father > had just been accepted to Forestry School in Missoula and was driving > toward there from Kentucky when that fire happened. He arrived as a fresh > young Forestry Student in the aftermath of that very tragic and defining > incident. This story is well documented in the 1992 book "Young Men and > Fire <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Men_and_Fire>". > > Another tragic fire incident happened in the mid 1990's on the Storm King > or South Canyon fire. One notable difference from the 1949 tragedy was > that by this time firefighting crews included women... in this case I think > 4 of the 14 killed were women. > > Not long after my father began work as a Forest Service Professional in > Northern Arizona, one of his equally fresh colleagues, Billy Buck, was > caught in a bad situation with a group of firefighters who he was able to > save by using a technique similar to that of Wag Dodge of lighting a > "escape fire" which clears the immediate area of combustibles in a > lower-temperature fire, allowing firefighters to potentially survive in > that Island of "pre-burned" area. This was not long after the Mann-Gulch > fire and it helped to validate that Dodge's actions (he was only 1 of 3 > survivors of the fire and the only one who chose to stay within the escape > fire "island" while the others insisted on trying to outrun the fire to > their peril). They huddled together under a tarp they had wet from their > canteens while the fire blew past/over them. This technique was formalized > in the mid 1970's when they started requiring every fire crew to carry a > "fire shelter" which was essentially a tarp/tent with a reflective (think > space blanket) coating. Suffocation is often a bigger danger even than the > heat of the fire. Buck was credited with rescuing the entire crew with > his forceful style (former marine)despite having no formal authority. My > dad believed it was the only difference between his success and Wag Dodge's > failure (to save more than himself). > > May father was appalled at how much building happened in the Pacific > Northwest and even moreso in California, deep in the forested and other > potentially fire-prone areas. In the relatively uninhabited southwest, > even a huge fire would not be that likely to threaten habitation and when > it did, efforts could be focused on the few, relatively small areas of > habitation. In California, they were *always* fighting to protect > habitations, not to stop the fire. As it turns out, the most good for the > most people (well, the ecosystems we people are depending on) might have > been literally NO Intervention... go figure. > > Guerin and the SimTable(tm) folks are naturally *much* more up to date on > contemporary firefighting conditions and culture. During my father's time > in the business, they had not yet realized the extent of the hazard they > were creating by suppressing so many fires, causing ecosystems to go out of > balance, allowing small, fast burning forest materials to build up to the > point that they could ignite the larger, slower-to-burn full grown trees. > They *were* aware of it however, having the example of the US Park Service > whose policy at the time (started shifting in 1969) was "complete > suppression", overzealously not allowing *any* fire that they could stop. > > I opened the topic here by saying it was a "timely but potentially > contentious topic" because there is still a lot of contention over how much > fire-suppression is appropriate and even more contention about > anthropogenic climate change. > > I'm generally a believer in anthropogenic climate change but don't believe > that there is the level of confirmed evidence the stronger proponents claim > (the movement does have hysterics whose hysteria may not help the cause so > much). I believe that the stronger climate change deniers have other > agendas which they should not be proud of and they tend to have their own > hysterics as well. > > All that said, humanity has a lot of momentum in it's release of > greenhouse gasses (primary likely cause of global climate change at this > time)... and we *are not* going to stop or reverse quickly no matter what > happens (short of an asteroid making a bigger mess out of us first). For > the most part, hot dry areas will get hotter and drier (though climactic > and weather patterns *can* act in the opposite fashion in some regions) and > marginal areas will get hotter and drier. So forest and other types of > wildland fires will be much more common and more difficult to control. > With increased penetration of human habitation and other uses of these > areas, the *threat to human livelihood* will also continue to increase. > > Again, Guerin might have the numbers handy but there are definitely > thresholds of temperature and humidity in different bioregions where fires > go from unlikely to very likely... Fire Science has come a long way from > when my father was in the business... back then it was mostly about > throwing a few dozen men with shovels and pulaskis near the front of the > fire so they could "encourage" it toward areas less likely to burn (open > meadows, talus slopes, top of the ridge)... and to knock down spot-fires > thrown from the main fire before they could become new sources of a > propagating fire. > > As for Trader Joe's "hot food", I can't help you... although, the threat > of (ionizing) radiation in any context seems like it would be the easiest > to detect (as opposed to any number of chemical or biological > contaminations)? > > And as for your travel-tip requests... I'd claim that following the > *obvious* guidelines would be enough, but have to report that a friend who > has had a colostomy was recently detained for some time while they decided > what to do about the fact that (apparently) the plastics in his ostomy bag > reminded their chemical sensors of some species of explosives. Maybe you > should try AmTrak, GreyHound, or try putting an ad on Craigslist instead... > > Carry on! > - Steve > > Another one for people that know vastly more about weather and chaos > than I do: > Forest fires season this year and the temperature outside: I love > summer->october side of fall it's stupid pretty out. That being said: How > much of the 25-40c heat as reported by NOA. Is thehe dry conditions and > what seems to be just about zero humidity is inside of normal? > What I'm groping for is: yowza is it hot and dry, and it seems like > anything in the forests that can burn is burning- is this-somewhat normal? > oO > I seem to recall downtown about now (ie 430-5pm) trying to flood last year > and the year before and the year before etc. > > Nick you seem to speak temperature and humidity any thoughts? > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >
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