Whoa! Great catch.  His text book was the first in depth that I found back
in the day, 1997

http://www.amazon.com/Dynamics-Complex-Systems-Studies-Nonlinearity/dp/0201557487/

Amazing that he could find the needle in the statistical hay stack.

   -- Owen


On Fri, Feb 21, 2014 at 2:06 PM, glen e. p. ropella
<[email protected]>wrote:

> A Mathematical Formula Predicted Today's Worldwide Protests Over a Year Ago
> http://www.policymic.com/articles/82855/a-mathematical-
> formula-predicted-today-s-worldwide-protests-over-a-year-ago
>
> "From Ukraine and Venezuela to Thailand and Syria, revolutions, protests
> and unrest are sweeping the globe. Are we just living in crazy times when
> everyone's angry at the same time, or is there more than meets the eye?
>
> While each situation has its own complexities and particulars, complex
> systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute hypothesized
> that the continuing rise of high global food prices could lead to uprisings
> around the globe. Over a year ago, Yaneer Bar-Yam of the NECSI published a
> paper that charted the rise of the FAO food price index -- a UN measure that
> maps food costs over time -- and saw that whenever that figure rose above
> 210, riots broke out around the world. The hypothesis held true for 2008's
> economic collapse and 2011's Tunisian protests. After Bay-Yam built the
> model, he was able to predict the Arab Spring just weeks before it
> happened, and now the numbers are checking out for 2013, the year with the
> third highest food prices on record."
>
> --
> glen ep ropella -- 971-255-2847
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

Reply via email to