Holy cow! Given the ebola mess, I guess it's been seen in the wild, so to speak.
On the other hand, isn't human madness more likely? .. witness ISL (Islamic State). -- Owen On Tue, Sep 2, 2014 at 3:53 PM, Tom Johnson <[email protected]> wrote: > http://www.necsi.edu/research/evoeco/pre73/index.html > > Long-Range Interaction and Evolutionary Stability in a Predator-Prey System > > Cite as: > E.M. Rauch and Y Bar-Yam, Long-Range Interaction and Evolutionary > Stability in a Predator-Prey System. Physical Review E 73, 020903, 2006. > Download paper (.PDF) > Abstract > > Evolving ecosystems often are dominated by spatially local dynamics, but > many also include long-range transport that mixes spatially separated > groups. The existence of such mixing may be of critical importance since > research shows spatial separation may be responsible for long-term > stability of predator-prey systems. Complete mixing results in rapid global > extinction, while spatial systems achive long term stability due to an > inhomogeneous spatial pattern of local extinctions. We consider the > robustness of a generic evolving predatorprey or host-pathogen model to > long-range mixing and find a transition to global extinction at nontrivial > values implying that even if significant mixing already exists, a small > amount of additional mixing may cause extinction. Our results are relevant > to the global mixing of species due to human intervention and to global > transport of infectious disease. > > > Press Release > Beyond Bird Flu: Report Warns of Increasing Risk of Pandemics > > The increased ease and frequency of global travel may make the risk of > pandemics more severe than previously thought, a new report warns. A > computer model developed by researchers at the New England Complex Systems > Institute (NECSI) demonstrates that when the amount of long-distance travel > reaches a certain critical level, diseases that were once locally contained > can quickly grow to pandemic proportions. The report is especially notable > as the world carefully monitors the spread of avian flu. > > The report by Erik Rauch and Yaneer Bar-Yam appears in the current issue > of the Physical Review. The two authors have extensively studied computer > models of predator-prey and host-pathogen systems. In their previous work, > they have shown that exceptionally deadly diseases usually disappear > because they rapidly exhaust the local supply of hosts to infect. > > Their newest model shows what can happen if a disease can spread not just > locally, but globally as well. This is exactly what happens when an > infected traveler takes an international flight or if infected livestock is > shipped overseas. Rauch and Bar-Yam found that up to a certain point, > increased global travel had little effect on the overall severity of a > disease outbreak. However, when the rate of long-distance trips increases > to a critical value, then the disease behaves very differently. Instead of > forming isolated, contained pockets of infection, the disease spreads > unchecked and can become a devastating pandemic. > > The report addresses such diseases as Ebola, SARS and avian flu, the last > of which is currently spreading among birds across the globe, and may > mutate to infect people. If current trends continue, these might be just > the first of many pandemic threats that we will face. “Due to increasing > global transportation,” the authors warn, “human beings may cross the > transition into the realm of pandemics unless preventive actions are taken > that either limit global transportation or its impact.” > > The New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) has been instrumental in > the development of complex systems science and its applications for the > past ten years. NECSI promotes the study of complex systems for the > betterment of society via research and education. As President of NECSI, > Professor Bar-Yam has been applying complex systems science to fields > including health care, globalization, networks, biology, engineering and > social sciences. > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >
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