Thanks, John, This account is exactly the kind of thing I was looking for. It describes how a highly trained, reasonable person actually reasons in a complex, dynamic world. The one source of input you don't mention is "authority." So, If you went to your doctor tomorrow and he said, "I have read the WHO study, and I think you should stop eating all red meat, forthwith," what would you then do. My guess is that you would use some "reasoning" process to disqualify the Dr to some degree. The logic would be something like: "I distrust all forms of extreme advice; this is an example of extreme advice; I will distrust this advice; when I distrust something, I do it half-heartedly, therefore I will follow this advice halfheartedly." That's what I would do, anyway.
I feel that one of you is about to write me and say that I am confusing reasoning with decision making, but as a behaviorist, I am hard pressed to think what the difference is. n Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of John Kennison Sent: Wednesday, October 28, 2015 7:16 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] FW: Meat Hi Nick, That's an interesting question. I am not a vegetarian and I have, on occasion, asked myself "Why not?". Some of my answers are probably rationalizations: "Vegetarians have to be careful about getting enough protein"; "The studies connecting meat to cancer may well be faulty" (for example, it seems that a diet rich in fruits and vegetables helps to prevent cancer and vegetarians are more likely to have such a diet). On the other hand, I have not in any serious way explored any of these thoughts --I have not made it my business to see how hard it is for vegetarians to get adequate protein, and I have not investigated how the studies control for the effects of, say, meat-eaters eating fewer vegetables. I think my real reasons are that I like meat, and I think that being a vegetarian would be inconvenient. I do respond to cancer studies, so I try to eat salads and broccoli and fruits and other vegetables. Also, I have largely (but not at all completely) given up red meat. The latest studies will make me less likely to go to a Subway for a processed Turkey sandwich. But I have already entertained the thought that the studies are probably flawed because people who lots of processed meats will include a disproportionately high number who do not eat very well--I haven't, of course, checked to see whether the studies control for this possibility. --John ________________________________________ From: Friam [[email protected]] on behalf of Nick Thompson [[email protected]] Sent: Wednesday, October 28, 2015 1:06 AM To: Friam Subject: [FRIAM] FW: Meat Dear Friam members, As those of you in the mother church are already aware, I have been trying to foment a conversation about what rationality consists of and how does it relate to a purported scientific consensus. I assume that you are all, more or less, rational people. How exactly, then, did each of you come to the conclusion that, say, animal fats do or do not cause heart disease, smoking does or does not cause cancer, human activity does or does not cause global warming, that tick bites do (or do not) cause a syndrome called chronic Lyme disease, that, say, beet powder improves metabolism (?), or that turmeric does or does not alleviate arthritis. Or, perhaps more important, how did you decide to act on these beliefs? Or not? A friend of mine is always trying to change my eating habits and now assaults me with evidence that red meat, particularly if processed, is increasing my risk of cancer. She includes in her email several links that are designed to convince me. I include those below. The question I would like us to consider is not really the substance of the matter. I am effing 77 years old, with a dozen things wrong with me that are likely to kill me long before tomorrow's hotdog will. I am more interested in the process by which each of you will decide whether or not to change your habits on the basis of this new evidence, or try to change the habits of your children or grandchildren. In what sense will that process be "reasonable?" Discuss. Nick Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ -----Original Message----- From: EMAIL Sent: Tuesday, October 27, 2015 8:31 PM To: Nick Thompson <[email protected]> Subject: Re: Meat Here's a thoughtful look at what the WHO had to say about meat and cancer: http://examine.com/blog/scientists-just-found-that-red-meat-causes-cancer--o r-did-they/?utm_source=Examine.com+Insiders&utm_campaign=34d0d95b1b-Red_mead 10_27_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e4d662cb1b-34d0d95b1b-70203945&ct=t(R ed_mead10_27_2015)&goal=0_e4d662cb1b-34d0d95b1b-70203945&mc_cid=34d0d95b1b&m c_eid=3edf56d922 Apparently the WHO looked at 800 different studies. That's a lot of studies. Is it a meta study? R On Oct 27, 2015, at 4:40 PM, Nick Thompson wrote: > R > > I always wait for the metastudy. > > n > > Nicholas S. Thompson > Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University > http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ > > > -----Original Message----- > From: EMAIL > Sent: Monday, October 26, 2015 3:35 PM > To: Nick Thompson <[email protected]> > Subject: Meat > > Nick, > > Are you freaking out about the meat/cancer news? Here's an article > that puts it in perspective: > > http://www.theguardian.com/science/sifting-the-evidence/2015/oct/26/me > at-and > -tobacco-the-difference-between-risk-and-strength-of-evidence?CMP=fb_a > -scien ce_b-gdnscience?CMP=fb_a-science_b-gdnscience > > . > > ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
